Labour rebel claims Starmer risks defeat on welfare bill with ‘loads’ of MPs planning to vote against it – UK politics live

Keir Starmer faces the toughest Commons challenge of his premiership this evening when MPs vote on his welfare changes

Good morning. Keir Starmer faces the toughest Commons challenge of his premiership this evening when MPs vote on the universal credit (UC) and personal independence payment (Pip) bill with all commentators confident he will fact a big revolt. He is expected to win – but, on this point, the Westminster commentariat isn’t 100% confident; it looks very tight.

Governments almost never lose votes and there are good reasons for this. One is that they normally have a majority. (Starmer’s working majority is 165.) But the main reason is that the one person who normally has the best intelligence as to how the vote will go is the government chief whip (Alan Campbell in this administration) and if the chief whip isn’t confident that they have the numbers, ministers will offer last-minute concessions. Starmer has already offered concessions worth around £3.3bn on this bill, but there’s a good chance we might get more during the debate – perhaps relating to when the new Pip rules recommended by the Stephen Timms review next year will start applying.

There are loads more, loads more … I engaged with so many people yesterday that were saying, ‘I’m not signing a reasoned amendment, but I am voting down the bill.’

Cool heads are not prevailing: One Labour official texted POLITICO’s Dan Bloom last night: “The heat has clearly gotten to the PLP — who are about to shoot themselves in the head and then attempt to blame the same people who got them elected for blood being everywhere.”