History will be made today.

Canada plays their first knockout game at a men’s World Cup taking on South Africa in Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium with a noon kickoff. The Canadians, who finished second in their group, actually got a more favourable draw by doing so. They’re not at home, but the are facing a South African team that is well below them in the FIFA rankings where Canada sits 32nd and their opponents are 54th.

Here’s everything you need to know before the big game.

Where to watch?

Are Canada jerseys available anywhere?

It’s getting tough.

Craig Burnham, the owner of Sportstown Soccer in Richmond, took a gamble and ordered about 120 Canada jerseys for this tournament — a significant amount for a small business like his, and far more than he stocked in 2022 for a previous World Cup.

As of Friday, all he had left were three kids’ sizes and a single women’s jersey.

“It was a big risk, but thankfully, it sold through,” he said.

Burnham said the lead-up was so quiet that he and other shop owners were comparing notes, wondering whether anyone would buy the kit they’d committed to a year in advance.

“There was no real driving excitement about it,” he said. “And then it’s like, all of a sudden, the city woke up.”

At North America Sports on East Hastings Street, owner Ferruccio Susin said Canada jersey sales have jumped up 10 times over a normal stretch.

He hired two extra staff about a month before the tournament began just to keep up.

“The World Cup coming to Canada has been a blessing,” Susin said. “Everybody has the soccer fever this summer here in Vancouver.”

Susin, whose shop has been operating for nearly 50 years, said he’s had to scramble for stock as Nike struggles to keep pace. Buyers have spanned all demographics: teenagers to people in their 60s, men and women, longtime fans and casual ones.

He said demand has been split fairly even between the red home jersey, with its embossed Maple Leaf, and the new black alternative with its ice-inspired design.

What does Canada need to do to win?

They get the early jump.

If Canada held up a mirror, they might see South Africa staring back.

South Africa is a team that is very similar in style and strength. Fast, potentially lethal in transition, athletic, physical, stout and organized in defence. A side saturated with self-belief, fired by external disrespect.

And just like Canada, they are debutantes in the World Cup knockout round.

“I was impressed with South Africa,” Canada coach Jesse Marsch said of watching their 1-0 upset of South Korea.

“As much as you would say that South Korea is the better team, at the end of the game, what you see is that South Africa earned that result. They were the better team, and they’re going to give us a big challenge.

“(Their strengths) are things that we usually are equipped with, and so that will challenge our ability to manage. Can we then still tilt the game by how we think about organizing ourselves and the tactics we try to employ?”

Both teams will be focused on one thing: scoring first. Analytics show the team that concedes the first goal loses 69 per cent of the time, though, that number actually drops the closer to kick off it is inside the opening 15 minutes.

Canada had a slow start against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and had to scrap and claw for a goal. They fell behind Switzerland too, and ran out of time after what Marsch called an “inspiring” last 20 minutes, coming close to an equalizer several times.

But now it’s win or go home time. Ties and moral victories aren’t enough.

“As we progress in the knockouts and play better and better opposition … if you’re even just off a little bit, just off a touch, they’re not only going to punish you, but they can get two (goals),” said fullback Alistair Johnston.

“We’ve looked at all the stats, you can see the first goal in the World Cup game, the chances instantly of progressing, how quickly those drop, it’s quite frightening. We felt that passion, we’ve seen all the videos of the fans walking the stadiums, it’s been unbelievable, and it’s again really a pinch-me moment as a Canadian growing up in the sport, just loving the sports so much, but now to see the passion from so many people, and not just football diehard fans, but from more the public. We’re really getting people onside, and hopefully that’s something we continue to build on here.”

What could a win mean for Canada?

The Canadian team is well aware of what a win would mean for soccer in this country. It will be huge.

Jesse Marsch

“I remember when I said it was going to be bigger than the World Series, and everyone’s like, ‘Oh, Marsch’s an idiot.’
It’s been a national movement. It’s been incredible to watch. I’m really proud of the country, and I’m really proud that our team inspired the country.”

Alistair Johnston

“Honestly, now having a lot of players playing at big clubs, I’d say that it’s starting to feel like what a proper footballing nation would feel in a major tournament. And I think that that’s a really cool thing.”

“Expectations are growing. I mean, look at this,” he said, gesturing to the massive horde of media at UBC on Thursday.

“This is a little different than what it was when you were first following our team. It’s something that again shows that what we’re doing on the pitch is making a difference.

“It’s showing that the people in Canada want to follow us, which is something that you know we’ve always aspired. Since day one, we’ve always said that we want to grow the game in Canada, and the biggest and best way to do that is to win football matches at big tournaments.”

What is the world saying about Canada’s chances?

The Athletic

“It’s win or go home for Canada. South Africa are a largely defensive side that does not maintain solid possession numbers. South Africa scored just two goals through three games. Canada could expect to have plenty of the ball in the last 32. Should they defeat South Africa, they would move to Houston, Texas, for a Round of 16 game between Morocco and the Netherlands.”

While it’s just a fan prediction vote, in the Athletic’s Pick ‘Em section Canada appears to be the clear favourite to win with more than 90 per cent choosing a Canada win.

Forbes

“Canada, finishing second in Group B, avoided a ‘worst-case scenario’ by drawing South Africa instead of South Korea for their World Cup knockout match in Inglewood, California. South Africa’s upset win over South Korea was a major break for Canada.

“Facing South Korea would have meant playing against a massive home crowd, as Los Angeles boasts the largest Korean community outside of Korea. This significant fan support would have created a de facto away game for Canada, impacting both team psychology and referee decisions. Ticket prices for Canada’s match dropped sharply after South Korea was eliminated from that specific pairing, highlighting the fan factor. Canada thus dodged a tougher opponent and a hostile environment.”

Bet MGM

“Canada is predicted to be a 0.5-goal favourite against South Africa.

If Alphonso Davies fails to feature the Canada vs. South Africa prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-150).

Canada created a mere 1.2 expected goals with 60 per cent possession against Bosnia. By post-shot xG (expected goals calculated by success of historical data on goals from similar chances), Marsch’s team generated only 0.75 against the UEFA outfit.

But there is a lack of confidence in the South Africa attack. Against Czechia, South Africa scored its lone goal off a penalty kick. Outside that effort, they created 0.6 xG and 0.4 post-shot xG. Against South Korea, the African nation created 1.2 xG compared to only 0.5 psxG. Only two of its four shots on target cleared 0.1 post-shot xG. Those factors lead to a prediction of a low-scoring match with Canada edging it.”

With files from Paul Chapman and Oksana Shtohryn

Related

• Complaints about StubHub World Cup tickets under investigation in B.C.
• World Cup: Canada's knockout path somehow easier by finishing second