BURSTThe chances of a recreational sockeye salmon opening on the Fraser River happening this year are highly unlikely, due to significantly lower than expected numbers, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has announced.
Earlier this year, a big sockeye salmon run was predicted for 2026, marking the largest forecast return since 2018.
But that number has since dropped greatly due to wildfires, drought, lower-than-average snowpack, and strengthening El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
“The 2026 pre-season forecast for Fraser River sockeye ranged from a return of 1.95 million to 30.6 million, with a mid-point forecast of 7.74 million,” a media relations rep with DFO stated in an email to The Chilliwack Progress. “However, the latest in-season data show that Fraser River sockeye returns are too low to support recreational and commercial openings at this time, with a total estimated abundance of less than 2.8 million.”
DFO added that these forecasts provide a “likely” range of returns based on historical data, rather than an exact number, and that decisions about which planned harvest scenarios are appropriate are made based on in-season data, not on pre-season forecasts.
The info helps DFO plan test fisheries, work with international partners, and develop fishing plans for a range of possible return scenarios.
“If the data show that Fraser River sockeye abundance increases above the threshold to allow harvest opportunities, then fisheries may resume this season. First Nations food, social, and ceremonial fisheries are provided as the first priority, while upholding conservation measures for the sustainable management of fisheries.”
For up-to-date numbers, go to the Pacific Salmon Commission website at psc.org/publications/fraser-panel-in-season-information.
On April 7, the Minister of Fisheries announced $412.9 million over five years to renew the Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative, which supports the restoration of vulnerable Pacific salmon populations and their habitat, and sustainable fishing opportunities. For more, go to canada.ca/en/fisheries-oceans/news/2026/04/canadas-nature-strategy-renews-pacific-salmon-strategy-initiative-to-protect-and-rebuild-wild-pacific-salmon-populations.html.