BURSTCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is leaning into the redistricting fight as he looks to build his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 bid, but the move comes with political risks.
Newsom formally declared his plans at a rally Thursday to call a special election for November that would allow state lawmakers to redraw California’s congressional map in response to President Trump urging red states to do the same.
The plan comes as Newsom positions himself as the most vocal Trump critic on the national stage — and amid speculation he’s planning to mount a White House bid in the coming years. But it also represents a political gamble that could backfire on the governor, as the state’s independent redistricting commission remains popular with voters and several high-profile figures, including former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), have vowed to campaign against the initiative.
“This is a gigantic roll of the dice, with national implications,” said California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.
Newsom has been trending in this direction for weeks as Texas Republicans barrel forward with plans to approve new congressional districts that would net them up to five additional seats in the House in next year’s midterms. He’s said he would only move forward if another state did first, but with Texas Democrats expected to return to the state soon, the governor is going all in on his response.
The process won’t be easy, as it requires the legislature to pass a ballot measure with a supermajority to quickly get it to voters for the November election and then will need a wide-ranging messaging campaign to rally support. Newsom previously told The Hill that he’s “very confident” about moving forward.
Democrats have the numbers in both houses of the legislature to approve the measure, so if they all stick together then it will pass.
Newsom acknowledged that the proposal is not a “slam dunk” but expressed optimism about unity he has seen from state legislative leaders for the plan. He said the “biggest risk” is not taking one.
“Trump doesn’t deserve the passivity, acquiescence. Democracy demands we at least try, eyes wide open, recognize the stakes,” he said.
He told reporters in comments after his rally that he expects the legislature to approve the initiative by the end of this coming week.
Presuming Texas passes a new map and it holds up to likely legal scrutiny, California will be critical to Democrats’ efforts to offset any potential GOP gains. Democrats in the state seems likely to also push for up to five new seats for the party, more than any other Democratic-led state could pick up next year.
Democratic strategist Matt Krayton said Newsom’s actions show his and others’ recognition that Democrats can’t use the same “playbook” while Republicans turn to “power grabs.”
“I don't think it necessarily cedes the moral high ground, and I think voters recognize that the utility and necessity of doing something like this,” he said.
The success of Newsom’s proposal could have major implications for the governor himself, as he has risen to become one of the top leaders of the Democratic Party and has continued to fuel speculation that he’s eying the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Maviglio called the rally a “campaign-style event,” in recognition that every Democrat needs to be excited about the plan and the issue needs to become partisan to get it passed.
“He has emerged at a time when Democrats do not have a national leader, and he is... becoming a leader for the moment,” he said.
But some barriers remain that raise the stakes for Newsom despite Democratic leaders pushing for this in a solidly blue state.
California’s independent redistricting commission, which has been in place for more than a decade, appears to have strong support.
A poll released Thursday showed 64 percent of Californians said they back the independent commission holding redistricting authority, compared to 36 percent who said they support returning the authority to the state legislature. Those supporting the commission included 72 percent of independents, 66 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats.
Of course, that’s before any concerted public effort to change voters’ minds, but it still means Newsom and Democratic leaders have work to do.
Maviglio said he expects the Democratic support for the commission to drop, but resistance will be stiff, noting a high-profile figure like Schwarzenegger getting involved to oppose the measure.
The former actor-turned-politician teased his involvement in a post on X on Friday, posting a picture of himself wearing a t-shirt saying, “terminate gerrymandering.”
And if the effort that Newsom is putting his full weight behind fails, it could spell trouble for his political aspirations.
“If it fails, that’s the end of his career,” Maviglio said. “First of all, he's going to be out of office. And then if he flopped on a signature issue, that spells disaster for his political future. So I think they're going to put everything they can into this.”
California Republican strategist Tab Berg argued that Newsom’s plan shows his focus is more on his political future than California.
“He's focused only on the national stage. He’s running for president. He's trying to position himself as the national anti-Trump guy,” Berg said, pointing to posts on X that Newsom’s press office have recently made that appear to imitate how Trump posts on social media.
Berg said he thinks the effort will be successful if Democrats are willing to ignore the law and “run over” voter sentiment, but they still have a tall hill to climb.
But he said he expects the plan could cause some backlash from voters who don’t want California to disenfranchise voters because of what Texas is doing. He said lawmakers’ focus should be on issues like supporting those in Los Angeles who lost their homes to wildfires, addressing homelessness and lowering the price of groceries.
And he warned that the move could hurt Newsom’s chances at the Democratic nomination in alienating moderates and stoking further distrust in government, particularly among young people.
“I think that the Democrats are going to permanently, or at least long term, harm their brand by moving this forward,” Berg said.
But at least in terms of the plan’s chances, Newsom has overcome adversity before, said Matt Barreto, a professor of political science and co-founder of the Voting Rights Project at the University of California, Los Angeles.
He said a concern is whether voters will sign off on Newsom’s plan, but a major campaign for it is coming.
“There's going to be an extensive campaign with public information and outreach to educate the voters of California why the governor believes this is important,” he said, noting Newsom’s easy victory in fending off a recall effort in 2021.
Krayton said determining the political effects on Newsom is still premature given the time that remains before the next presidential election, but he’s charting a new path that Democratic voters have said they want from their leaders, pushing back against Trump and Republicans.
“As a party, we need to be looking to voices who are willing to take approaches that we haven't taken before,” he said. “In doing what he's doing, he's contributing his voice to that very goal of identifying people who you know have a different way of approaching the situation.”