BURST
The B.C. Conservatives have taken a narrow lead over the governing party, according to new Leger poll.
Buoyed by new leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay , the Conservatives now sit at 45 per cent support compared with 41 per cent for the NDP, marking the first time the Opposition party has held the lead since the 2024 elections.
“It’s been a slow, steady build for the Conservatives and a slow, steady decline for the NDP since last October,” Leger vice-president Steve Mossop said on Thursday. “It’s completely a reversal of fortunes, if you will, with perhaps more to come.”
Leger’s most recent poll, conducted online among 1,002 B.C. residents on June 1 and 2, found a seven-point drop in NDP support since it peaked last October.
The party’s popularity has eroded in recent months as the province struggled with record budget deficits and debates over Indigenous land rights and DRIPA as well as broader economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Conservative support has climbed from 38 per cent last fall, hitting its current peak after Findlay’s leadership victory on Saturday.
The Leger poll follows an Angus Reid Institute survey earlier this year that found the then-leaderless Conservatives ahead of the NDP by 10 percentage points after backlash over DRIPA.
Findlay, who served as MP for the Delta-Richmond and South Surrey-White Rock ridings, and was minister of revenue in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet, remains relatively unknown to most British Columbians.
Just 26 per cent of respondents said they were familiar with Findlay, while 43 per cent said they have not heard of her before the survey.
Among those who know her, 17 per cent had a favourable impression, while 22 per cent viewed her unfavourably. Another 23 per cent hold a neutral opinion, while 38 per cent said they did not know enough about her to form an impression.
She does not have a seat in the B.C. legislature, but says she plans to run as soon as possible .
While it remains to be seen whether she can unite her party and carry the B.C. Conservatives to victory, Findlay is off to a promising start, said Mossop.
“It’s a good starting point,” he said, noting that the survey found early signs Findlay may be appealing to voters outside the Conservative base.
The poll said six per cent of NDP supporters said they have a favourable view of Findlay, while seven per cent said her leadership makes them more likely to vote Conservative.
Those figures may seem modest, but elections have been decided by margins of just a few percentage points, said Mossop.
He said the NDP, now in its second term, faces an uphill battle to secure a third mandate, particularly as polling shows a growing appetite for change among voters.
The Leger poll also suggests voters’ priorities are shifting. Housing affordability remains the top issue, but has declined in importance among voters, while issues like the economy and concerns about the provincial deficit are growing concerns.
“The NDP has not quite picked up on that subtle change, and may be losing ground,” said Mossop. “They didn’t seem to blink an eye at a $13-billion deficit and now those concerns are becoming part of the mainstream agenda.”
He said Findlay’s greatest vulnerability will be the perception she is a B.C. version of U.S. President Donald Trump. “British Columbians are not very tolerant of extreme right-wing ideas. She’ll have to be careful not to be positioned as someone who have extreme views.”
The NDP has already sought to define Findlay as leading the “pro-Trump wing” of the party. She has been criticized for controversial comments made during the leadership race.