BURSTThe B.C. Conservatives have maintained their lead in the polls three days ahead of the B.C. provincial election, but the B.C. NDP remain within striking distance according to the latest surveys.
Recent polls from Angus Reid Institute and Mainstreet Research indicate the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP by three or six percentage points, respectively. The Angus Reid poll had a margin of error of three points, putting the Conservatives anywhere from 43 to 49 per cent support and the NDP in the range of 40 to 46 per cent support.
Philippe Fournier, creator of 338Canada, launched the polling aggregator in 2017. He’s used it to track the last three B.C. elections, though he’s also closely followed earlier ones.
Fournier told Black Press Thursday that B.C. elections rarely result in the kinds of blowouts that former NDP Premier John Horgan enjoyed over Andrew Wilkinson’s Liberals in 2020. He pointed out that in 2024, David Eby’s NDP won the popular vote only by about two percentage points, and won 47 seats — the exact threshold for a majority.
“It would not take much for the NDP to drop a few points and then lose the election outright,” the polling analyst said.
“Right now the polls pretty unanimously have the Conservatives ahead, although the margins vary from one pollster to the other,” Fournier added.
Fournier said the polls suggest the NDP will need a strong push in the final days to retain office.
“If the Conservatives match their polls and the NDP doesn’t over-perform, we’re looking at a Conservative government in B.C. Saturday night,” he said, adding the data will become clearer later in the day Friday when the final polls are in.
The NDP had two years left on its mandate, but called a snap election a month ago. The party now finds itself trailing in the polls with just a few days left in the campaign.
What accounts for this turn of events?
Fournier posited that when they called the election, the NDP were likely relying on polling data from when the Conservatives were under the shaky leadership of Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who was elected leader of the party in late May but resigned amid considerable internal pressure on Sept. 20. Eby declared the snap election two days later.
“I think (the NDP) were perhaps pushed into going into a snap election because they had favourable polls, because those polls were measuring Ms. Findlay’s Conservatives and not Mr. Doerkson’s Conservatives,” Fournier said.
While interim leader for the Conservatives Lorne Doerkson is still a bit of a relative political unknown even after the Oct. 14 leader’s debate, Fournier pointed out he has “led a campaign without much drama, which is a huge contrast to his predecessor, Ms. Findlay.”
Post-debate, the polling numbers have tightened up a bit, said Fournier, with polls indicating the race is still close.
But there are some key battlegrounds the NDP will have to win in order to have a path to govern again, he added. The main ones to watch are Surrey and the edges of Metro Vancouver.
“If Surrey goes blue and the Metro Vancouver numbers are tighter than they were two years ago, there’s just no path for the NDP to win because they would have to over-perform in the Interior, which we don’t see,” Fournier said.
The parties appear to have drawn a similar conclusion, as leaders have flocked to Surrey this week to draw as much support there as possible.
The B.C. Greens have been polling anywhere from eight per cent (Angus Reid) to 15 per cent (Mainstreet Research) this week. Fournier said the numbers for the party have been a bit short of expectations.
“I think this election was sort of an opportunity for the Greens, and it doesn’t seem that they have been, at least so far, able to materialize this,” he said. “We see a lot of voters were not happy with Mr. Eby calling a snap election, and so you would think you would have centrists or left-of-centre voters that are usually NDP supporters perhaps give the Greens a second look, but this hasn’t happened according to the numbers.”