BURSTBuckle up! A perfect storm is approaching Washington. All the ingredients are there to bring about a government shutdown at midnight on Sept. 30.
Here are seven reasons this is unfortunately likely.
First, August recess has compressed the timeline to strike a deal. When lawmakers return, they will have only 20 working days before the government runs out of funding at the end of September, drastically reducing negotiating time and raising the odds of brinkmanship.
Second, congressional Democrats are outraged over Republicans’ use of rescissions to claw back congressionally approved money. Democrats warned Republicans that passing their $9 billion rescissions package would risk a shutdown and shatter any remaining trust on budgeting. Republicans passed it anyway. Since then, prominent Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have called for the party to refuse to cooperate on government funding.
Third, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was met with furious backlash from his party in the spring when he voted for the last funding deal to keep the government open. He will feel greater pressure to strike a fighting posture this time. The party’s base has consistently demanded a show of force in high-profile moments, and this one will be no different. Add to that: Some Democrats may see a shutdown as an opportunity to force disclosures of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Fourth, Republicans have their own escalating intraparty rifts. The Freedom Caucus is fit to be tied after being pressured to vote for more spending in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” even though it did not meet their demands for deficit reduction. Some may feel burned and eager to reclaim credibility by demanding cuts, even if it means defying President Trump and risking a shutdown.
Fifth, we have a president who isn’t afraid of shutdowns. He sees them as politically useful, and they only give him more power to make cuts at federal agencies — the primary reason Schumer said he voted to avoid a shutdown in the spring. The last government shutdown occurred during Trump’s first term in office, and his willingness to dig in helped make it the longest shutdown in history — 35 days.
Sixth, the blame game has already begun. “If we end up with a Schumer shutdown at the end of the year, the Democrats are going to own that,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D). Democrats, meanwhile, have argued that House Republicans are sabotaging appropriations to push for political wins. This signals that lawmakers already have low expectations for their ability to strike a deal.
Seventh and finally, we have a broken budgeting process. This one is nothing new. 1997 was the last time Congress passed all 12 annual appropriations bills on time. Washington has had 14 partial government shutdowns since 1981. This year’s proposed spending bills, despite valiant efforts from Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and others, are already stalling, which will likely force another continuing resolution — and those make no one happy.
Now here’s the reality: Despite what some leaders seem to think, no one wins in a shutdown. Polls consistently show that both parties catch the flak, and for good reason. Shutdowns weaken the economy, waste taxpayer dollars and gut everyday public services — closing national parks, slowing passport and visa procession, and even pausing food safety inspections.
The economic risks seem particularly dire today, as the markets are already whipsawing over tariff turmoil, the deficits and debt, a sinking dollar, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence. How much more drama can the economy take?
While all the ingredients are there for a shutdown in October, it doesn’t have to happen. Congress can still step up and do its most fundamental job by funding the government on time. If it doesn't, both parties will be responsible, and both parties will pay the price.
Ryan Clancy is chief strategist at No Labels.