BURSTThe B.C. Conservatives hold a slight edge over the NDP less than two weeks ahead of the Oct. 24 provincial snap election, despite a lack of strong support for leader Lorne Doerkson, a new poll suggests.
Research Co. conducted a weighted online survey of 808 B.C. voters from Oct. 9 to 11. The poll found 44 per cent of decided likely voters would support the Conservatives while 42 per cent would cast a ballot for the New Democrats. With a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points, the poll indicates Conservative support in the range of 40 to 48 per cent, and NDP support in the range of 38 to 46 per cent.
The findings are largely consistent with other recent surveys from major polling firms. A Leger poll collected Oct. 9 to 12 indicated a narrow Conservative lead over the NDP (42 per cent versus 40 per cent). Within that approximate time period, Pallas Data found 43 per cent support for the Conservatives compared to 38 per cent for the NDP, which were the same numbers indicated by Ipsos in its poll conducted from Oct. 7 to 11.
Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., said Tuesday (Oct. 14) his firm’s data suggests the race is close, setting the stage for a competitive final two weeks of the campaign.
“You see the Conservatives gaining ground in the places where they need it, particularly Metro Vancouver, which is where most of the seats are,” Canseco told Black Press Media. “But you don’t see a significant movement yet for (Conservative Leader) Lorne Doerkson. He still trails on the best premier question, with the exception of crime and public safety.”
More than a third of likely voters (36 per cent) believe NDP Leader David Eby would make the best premier out of the five party leaders. Doerkson is second with 25 per cent, according to the poll.
“The thing that is quite remarkable is there’s a resilience in the numbers for the NDP,” Canseco said. “The number of votes that they would get is lower and that is understandable. But it’s not as if people are necessarily looking at Lorne Doerkson as premier material yet.”
For those wondering how the Conservatives can be polling ahead while the party’s leader trails the NDP’s Eby by 11 points on the best premier question, Canseco says people likely aren’t familiar enough with Doerkson.
Doerkson was named the Conservatives’ interim leader less than a month ago, around the time the party was at peak instability. Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as leader Sept. 20 after 11 Conservative MLAs quit caucus citing issues with her leadership and three others – including two former leaders – were ousted from the party.
The televised leaders’ debate takes place tonight, Oct. 14, from 6:15 to 8 p.m., and Canseco said the debate will be a pivotal moment in the campaign. It will be a chance for Doerkson to gain exposure, and the key will be whether or not he makes a positive impression.
“There’s an ideology component to this. People who are fed up with the government, they will vote for the Conservatives no matter what,” Canseco said.
“But what you’re missing is the emotional connection with the leader. And this is the question that usually changes everything.”
Canseco said there was an important moment in the 2017 provincial election campaign when NDP leader John Horgan tied B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark on the best possible premier question among survey respondents.
“That’s the moment when you start to think, OK, maybe change is at hand. We never saw Andrew Wilkinson doing that to Horgan in 2020. We never saw Rustad doing that to David Eby in 2024,” he said. “I think part of what is going to seal the deal for the Conservatives is, can you have a significant proportion of voters looking at Doerkson as somebody who would do a better job than David Eby two weeks into the campaign?”
55-plus vote a key demographic
The NDP holds the upper hand among voters aged 55 and over (52 per cent to 41 per cent for the Conservatives), according to Research Co.’s survey. Meanwhile, the Conservatives hold a large lead among decided voters in the 18 to 34 age range (47 per cent to the NDP’s 41 per cent, with the B.C. Greens at 14 per cent).
Canseco said the 55-plus demographic is one to watch.
“There’s a scenario here where if the over 55 crowd really connects with Lorne Doerkson, they could significantly increase their voting totals, and then this would be an election that is similar to the elections of the B.C. Liberals in the past, where the over 55 voter is more likely to be centre-right minded,” he said.
Voting Day in the provincial election is Saturday, Oct. 24.