Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R-N.C.) decision to not seek reelection to another term has scrambled the field for what will be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country next year.

The North Carolina Senate race was already going to be one of the most-discussed contests of the 2026 midterms as one of the two main targets for Democrats hoping to at least narrow the Republican majority in the body.

But with Tillis out, the race appears set to become even more hotly contested as big names on both sides of the aisle are floated as potential candidates, including Lara Trump and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

“I think it’s changed the calculus tremendously because ... Tillis was going to be not impossible but difficult to beat,” said North Carolina Democratic strategist Doug Wilson.

Tillis had previously demonstrated his electoral strength in challenging races in a battleground state, winning his Senate elections in 2014 and 2020 by less than 2 points. Democrats were hopeful in particular that they had an opportunity to oust Tillis in 2020, as former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) led the incumbent in the polls throughout most of the race. 

But his campaign was derailed late by reports that Cunningham was having an affair, and Tillis pulled off a win as President Trump also narrowly carried the state in the presidential race. 

Democrats previously acknowledged the challenge they would face in defeating Tillis for a third term but expressed hope, especially if the popular former two-term Gov. Cooper enters the race. Cooper has been considering a bid, but the North Carolina-based NBC affiliate WRAL reported that he won’t decide for at least a few more weeks. 

Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), who served one term in the House before he decided against seeking reelection after redistricting made his district substantially more conservative, has already launched his candidacy for Senate. 

The 2026 Senate map doesn’t have many obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats despite history suggesting that political headwinds should favor them with Republican control of the White House and Congress. 

Maine will be a top target for the party, with Sen. Susan Collins being the only incumbent Senate Republican up for election next year in a state that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Although success in North Carolina has eluded them in recent federal elections, Democrats are hoping they can finally get over the hurdle next year. 

The party realistically needs to win both states to even think about winning the Senate next year, along with wins in other states that are more of a reach, like Texas, all while defending its current seats. 

Democrats and Republicans both expressed optimism about their chances in the Tar Heel State with the news of Tillis’s retirement. 

“President Trump has won North Carolina three times, and the state’s been represented by two Republican Senators for over a decade,” said Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, in a statement. “That streak will continue in 2026 when North Carolinians elect a conservative leader committed to advancing an agenda of opportunity, prosperity, and security.” 

Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, called Tillis’s decision “another blow to Republicans’ chances as they face midterm backlash that puts their majority at risk.” She vowed that Democrats would flip the seat. 

In the aftermath of Tillis’s announcement, several North Carolina Republicans have been floated as possible candidates for the GOP nod. 

Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and the former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC), may be the most notable name. A source confirmed to The Hill earlier Monday that she is considering a run. 

Given her ties to President Trump and his status as the most influential figure in the GOP, she would likely be the clear favorite for the Republican nomination if she enters. 

Republican strategist Doug Heye, who has worked on multiple races in North Carolina, said Lara Trump will have the “right of first refusal.” RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who previously led the North Carolina GOP, may have a strong case that it should be him if Trump declines. 

“He can say, ‘I’ve worked at the Senate. I know how it works, and by the way, I’ve won North Carolina for Trump twice,’” Heye said. 

A GOP operative who’s worked in North Carolina Senate races said the expectation would be that only one of them would enter the race, but not both. Trump and Whatley worked together at the RNC.

The operative said many are excited at the possibility of having a Trump on the ballot but added that Whatley is also a strong candidate who has shown an ability to raise the resources necessary in an expensive state. Other names under serious consideration include GOP Reps. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Pat Harrigan. 

President Trump threatened to intervene in the primary even before Tillis’s public announcement, saying he would interview possible candidates. The Hill reported earlier Monday that this came after Tillis texted Trump telling him to think about his replacement in the Senate. 

The operative argued that Tillis didn’t have the coalition to win in November, given growing frustration from Republicans and moderates. 

“It was definitely not an easier path than a generic candidate we would have or will have,” the operative said. “Now who that candidate is [is] going to have a big part in where the race goes.”

Members of both parties acknowledged the race appears fully up for grabs and said they expect millions of dollars to pour into the state. More than $260 million was spent throughout Tillis’s 2020 cycle, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Wilson said Tillis demonstrated his independence with votes on legislation like former President Biden’s gun control law following the 2022 Uvalde, Texas, shooting, and the CHIPS and Science Act. The state party censured him over certain stances that strayed from the party platform.

Wilson said whichever candidate is the Republican nominee will be representing a party that has become more “Trumpified,” helping Democrats make it a referendum on the president.

“Tillis was going to be hard to beat, but with that said, now it’s an open game,” he said.

In one positive sign for Democrats, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” after Tillis’s announcement.

But Heye noted much remains uncertain, with many untested candidates looking at a run. He argued Cooper hasn’t before faced as tough a race as he would if he runs, while Republicans like Lara Trump and Whatley haven’t faced voters before.

“We call them first-time candidates for a reason,” he said about Trump and Whatley. “We know what they are on paper. We never know how a first-time candidate is until they start running."