BURSTAfter a soggy December and no snow a month into winter, 2026 is shaping up to be a warmer year for those living on B.C.’s south coast.
And the latest information from Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts that people across the country could see warm temperatures scorching their way into the record book.
ECCC released its annual global mean temperature forecast, providing early access to expected global temperature conditions for 2026. Following record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024, and another exceptionally warm year in 2025, global temperatures are expected to remain at historically high levels this year as well.
Environment Canada expects 2026 to rank among the hottest years ever recorded. While it may not surpass 2024, which is currently the warmest year on record, temperatures in 2026 may be comparable to those observed in recent years.
The forecast was produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCMA), which is hosted at the University of Victoria.
UVic experts are using a made-in-Canada climate prediction system designed to give an early and reliable peek into global temperature trends.
The data is meant to support governments, industries, and communities in planning for the growing impacts of a warming climate.
Speaking to Victoria News, CCMA research scientist Dr. Bill Merryfield said that local climate conditions in Victoria are shaped by both long-term warming and natural climate changeability.
“Victoria’s average annual temperatures have increased by more than 2C since the late 1940s, and this long-term warming trend competes with year-to-year variations caused by El Niño, La Niña, and other climate patterns,” Merryfield said.
He noted that 2026 has begun with a weak La Niña, which typically brings cooler conditions to Canada’s West Coast.
“Although that cooling hasn’t been evident so far this winter, La Niña’s effects often persist into spring, so conditions could still change,” he added.
Looking ahead, Merryfield added that El Niño is expected to develop later in 2026, which would likely bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the West Coast next winter and further increase global temperatures.
“If that happens, 2027 could potentially become a new record-breaking warm year,” he said.