BURST
Political polls are showing a potential blue wave — with a tinge of Green — at the voting booth for Saturday’s general election in B.C.
Leger, the Canadian market research and analytics company, conducted a survey this week that showed the B.C. Conservatives firmly ahead of the NDP 44 per cent to 39 per cent among decided voters — a big bump from their previous two-percentage-point lead.
The survey, held Oct. 20-22, also showed support for the Green Party had gone from nine to 13 per cent since the leaders’ debate.
Another poll, from 338Canada — a statistical model and political forecasting website — predicted that the Conservatives would win 54 seats in the election , which would be a record for the party. The Conservatives had 44 seats under John Rustad in the last election.
Mainstreet Research (44-39), Angus Reid (46-43) and Innovative Research (43-38) all show the Conservatives in the lead ahead of Saturday’s general election.
“It seems that (Premier David Eby) just doesn’t have any momentum, and he hasn’t been able to create it from the beginning,” said Steve Mossop, executive vice-president of Leger’s Western Canada team.
“But it’s been a slow erosion of the NDP vote from the start of the campaign to the point where the Conservatives have a measurable lead.”
Leger’s analysis also showed that voters have begun to coalesce around their choices, with the number of undecided voters dropping to six per cent, and those who have said they are likely to change their vote dropping from 26 per cent to 21.
But it’s not entirely doom and gloom for the NDP. Younger voters (35 per cent) and Green supporters (36 per cent) said they would consider switching their votes if their preferred party didn’t field a candidate in their riding. And among those, the NDP has more support (29 per cent to 18 per cent) than the Conservatives — especially among Green Party voters (34 per cent to 12 per cent).
It’s been a rough week for Eby, however, whose popularity continues to slide. Almost half of respondents say their opinion of the NDP leader has worsened as opposed to improved (45 per cent to 12 per cent). That’s a seven-point drop for Eby from the previous week.
Perception of Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson has been more even, with 24 per cent improved to 22 per cent worse.
“Doerkson has established himself as a moderate. He’s calm. He’s collected. He’s not saying anything outrageous. He’s sticking to some general, broad themes: economy, jobs, taxes, and change,” said Mossop. “And Eby has been continually throwing out the kind of radical solutions that alienate some parts of the voter group. For example, the vacancy tax … he’s alienated the business community and developers. You talk about instigating extra taxes in the highest tax regime in the country on incomes over $200,000, and you’re alienating people who tend to get out and vote more than any other crowd.
“So it’s not surprising that he’s gone really nowhere in the polls, and his approval rating continues to tank.”
The bump seen by the Greens has been a surprise, though it’s clear leader Emily Lowan has resonated with younger voters. Mossop said the apathy in the youth vote is a big reason electoral turnout has averaged just 58 per cent over the past six elections , a far cry from the 71 per cent in the 2001 and 1996 elections before them. Leger’s research shows the Greens have 20 per cent of the vote of the decided 18-34 demographic, an outsized result considering the party’s size.
“After debate night, it’s clear that (Lowan’s) established herself as a complete different path and one that is almost maybe a little bit cool and has momentum because she’s so vastly different,” said Mossop. “And it was pointed out even by the pundits and the media in this debate, that here we have two white old guys … with a younger woman, very different economic circumstances, and that juxtaposition I think created some power for her.”