Voters in Wisconsin and Florida are set to decide on several key statewide and congressional races that are shaping up to be the first critical bellwethers of the national mood since the 2024 election.

In the Badger State, voters will be weighing in on a high-stakes race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will determine its partisan tilt.

Voters also will weigh in on a state superintendent race between incumbent Jill Underly and challenger Brittany Kinser in addition to a ballot measure on voter ID.

In the Sunshine State, voters in the 1st and 6th congressional districts will choose candidates to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, respectively, in the House. The Waltz district race, in particular, has put Republicans on edge amid signs it could be closer than originally anticipated.

Here’s what to watch for:

Do Wisconsin voters deliver a blow to Musk?

The Wisconsin judicial race, which has already smashed fundraising records, will offer the first test of Trump ally Elon Musk’s political and financial influence.

Musk has poured significant resources to support Schimel in the open Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

At least $12.2 million in the race has come from his America PAC, according to the latest campaign filing available Monday morning. Building America’s Future, a group Musk has contributed to in the past, has also spent $4.7 million in the race to back Schimel.

Musk also traveled to Wisconsin on Sunday to hand out two $1 million checks to Wisconsin voters.

President Trump has waded into the race to support Schimel, but it’s Musk who has been the most prominently involved in the last stretch of the race before the election. Musk has also contributed tens of thousands of dollars in the two Florida elections.

At the same time, the Crawford campaign and Wisconsin Democrats have used anger against Musk as a way to gin up their base in the off-year spring election.

Do Democrats make inroads in a deep-red Florida district?

All eyes are on Florida’s 6th Congressional District as Democrats hope to overperform in the deep-red district.

Trump and Waltz won the district by more than 30 points, but the Republican candidate Randy Fine has lagged behind Democratic candidate Josh Weil in fundraising and some polling. Weil has raised $10 million during the campaign, while Fine has brought in less than a million. An internal poll from the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil with only a 3-point lead over Fine — a five-alarm fire for Republicans in such a conservative district.

Republicans maintain the seat will stay red, and many Democrats insist the race is about narrowing the margins, but the race has drawn attention from national Republicans and Democrats.

For Democrats, a single-digit margin between the two candidates would be seen as a huge victory. The party likely would tout such a result as a clear referendum on Trump’s first few months in office, though some Republicans have argued a disappointing result would be more a result of Fine’s weaknesses as a candidate.   

Does GOP clinch win in superintendent race?

One statewide race in Wisconsin that hasn’t received as much national attention but is also being watched is the race for superintendent of public instruction between Underly and Kinser.

Underly, who succeeded Gov. Tony Evers (D) as superintendent in 2021, is running for a second term against Kinser, an education consultant who has advocated for school choice. Although the race is technically nonpartisan, Underly has the support of Democrats and the state’s public school teachers union, while Kinser is backed by Republicans.

A focal point in the race has been Underly’s decision last year to change how the state school exam, the Forward Exam, is assessed in Wisconsin. Last year, Underly decided to change the benchmarks by which Wisconsin students were assessed, arguing the new testing standards would better reflect student performance.

But the move drew criticism, with opponents arguing it was lowering school standards in the state and saying it would make it harder for schools to compare how students performed moving forward. Evers, notably, also opposed the change in standards, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Underly, for her part, has rejected the idea that school standards are being lowered.

How does turnout from both parties compare?

Because the Florida and Wisconsin elections are taking place in off-cycle years, turnout is expected to be much lower than what would be typically seen in a midterm or presidential election.

In Wisconsin, Democrats will need to run up the numbers in the counties like Milwaukee and Dane, which are where some of the largest concentrations of Democratic voters are in the state. Another key county to watch is Waukesha, a GOP-leaning county that has shifted slightly less red over the years.

In Florida, Republicans are seeking to tap into their voter registration advantage but warn that the party in power often underperforms in special elections. Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to not only tap into their base, but also persuade outside voters unhappy with Trump’s first three months in office.

Are there any surprises?

Democrats have overperformed in several races since November, though the Wisconsin Supreme Court race has proven to be a much tighter contest and will offer one of the first major tests for both parties.

If Democrats win, it’ll underscore their post-November winning streak in several competitive races.

But if Schimel comes out ahead, it will offer a major boost to Republicans who saw their preferred candidate lose by 10 points in 2023, the last time a state Supreme Court race was held in Wisconsin that determined the partisan tilt of the court.

It also could indicate Musk, who has angered many in town halls across the country over his efforts to slash the federal bureaucracy, is not as politically toxic as Democrats have made him out to be.

A Democratic victory in Florida, meanwhile, would be a political earthquake because the state has become the center of the GOP universe. Republicans have a nearly 1.2 million voter advantage in the state, which Trump won by 13 points in November.