When more than a dozen Russian drones flew into Poland overnight this week, NATO scrambled fighter jets to take them down. Western officials called it a “dangerous escalation” of the war in Ukraine. And they’re right; this wasn’t just another skirmish on the border. This was history. For the first time ever, NATO forces engaged enemy targets inside allied airspace. That’s not routine — that’s a turning point.  

Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it bluntly: “We are dealing with a large-scale provocation.”  

Now, Russia claims it “did not plan” to hit Poland, suggesting its drones couldn’t even reach that far. That’s simply not true. And Poland isn’t buying it. The country has already doubled down on military spending and pledged to expand its armed forces to half a million troops. Eastern Europe knows what’s at stake — they’ve lived this story before.  

And here’s the thing: Vladimir Putin keeps escalating because he keeps getting away with it. As Ukraine’s foreign minister put it on X, “Russian drones flying into Poland during the massive attack on Ukraine show that Putin’s sense of impunity keeps growing because he was not properly punished for his previous crimes.”  

Yet instead of punishment, Putin is gaining power. He was just welcomed out of isolation, traveling to Alaska in August at the invitation of President Trump, for what the White House called a summit to end the war. That meeting ended with no progress, no concessions, not even a ceasefire. And days later, Putin launched his largest missile and drone barrage of the entire conflict.   

Trump’s strategy looks shaky at best. He hasn’t unleashed the heavy sanctions his own administration has floated. And the delay matters. Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory in Moscow, told CNBC, “The Russian budget is actually under a lot of pressure... so if there were to be any more significant sanctions targeting Russian oil trade from the U.S. — which they’ve talked about but not done — that would put the budget under greater pressure. It hasn’t happened.”  

So Putin feels free to flex. Not long after his Alaska meeting with Trump, he was pictured shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un at a Chinese military parade. Think about that: the leaders of Russia, China and North Korea standing in lockstep — a not-so-subtle message challenging U.S. power on the world stage.  

Meanwhile, Ukraine waits. Kyiv has watched deadlines come and go — deadlines Trump himself set — like the Aug. 8 deadline for Russia to end fighting, with no consequences for Moscow. Remember, he told the world he’d solve this war in “24 hours.” Well, it’s September 11. The war is not only unsolved, it’s escalating.  

Here’s the reality: Putin’s message is clear, to Ukraine, to Europe and to Trump: “I won’t back down.” He wants us to believe that he alone will dictate the terms of peace. The real question is whether the West — and specifically the U.S. — will let him. 

Lindsey Granger is a News Nation contributor and co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising.” This column is an edited transcription of her on-air commentary.