BURST
The NDP government has done a poor job tackling the issues facing B.C., a new poll from Leger found, but British Columbians are also not sold on the Conservatives as a viable alternative.
Leger has the governing party trailing the opposition B.C. Tories by three points among decided voters, with the Conservatives at 39 per cent and the NDP at 36 per cent, which was within the poll’s margin of error. The poll found 13 per cent of voters were undecided.
The Greens have increased their support in recent months by four points to 13 per cent, while CentreBC and OneBC are both at five per cent support.
The poll comes a week to the day that NDP Leader David Eby announced he would be plunging the province into a snap election, less than two years after the last trip to the polls, to deal with the challenges posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
To get the data, Leger polled 1,003 B.C. residents of voting age online between Sept. 24 and 28, and the poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 per cent.
According to the poll, a majority of British Columbians, 58 per cent, believe the province is on the wrong track and only 19 per cent believe the NDP have done a good job.
At the same time, 57 per cent of those surveyed have concerns about the views of some Conservative candidates, with 54 per cent also wondering if the party’s interim leader, Lorne Doerkson, is credible and 53 per cent concerned about internal divisions within the party.
Steve Mossop, executive vice-president of Leger’s Western Canada team, said the advantage that Eby thought his party had just isn’t there.
“The critical error that he may have made, even at this early point, is that he’s assumed that this is a rinse-and-repeat of the federal election,” said Mossop. “All you’ve got to do is stand up, with a valid voice, to Trump, and it’s going to carry you through the polls and decide an election. Well, what’s happened is that voters have become a little bit fatigued at the rhetoric coming from Trump.”
The Leger poll isn’t the only survey showing the NDP trailing, with the Angus Reid Institute releasing data last week that had the Conservatives with an eight-point advantage over the NDP and half of voters stating their belief the province is on the wrong track.
The decision to go to the polls has been greeted with anger by many voters, with Leger finding 57 per cent of those surveyed disapprove of the snap election call, including 49 per cent of past NDP voters. That tracks with the Angus Reid data that found 62 per cent of voters disapproved of the election call, with 65 per cent saying Eby was putting himself ahead of the province.
Indeed, Trump and the U.S. ranked seventh on the list of issues in both polls, behind concerns such as health care, affordability, the economy and public safety.
Asked about the Angus Reid poll on Friday, Eby said he wasn’t worried and there are lots of polls throughout an election campaign.
“We’re early in the campaign. There are going to be a lot of polls. There are always messages that we can take from the polls. But at the end of the day, there is only one poll that matters. It’s cliché, but it’s cliché because it’s true. That’s election day,” said Eby.
The silver lining for Eby and his team is that Leger found 42 per cent of B.C. residents believe the NDP deserve another term, while 22 per cent believe the party has done a poor job but are still the best option.
Doerkson tried to dispel any notion that his party isn’t ready to govern when asked about the Leger poll on Tuesday.
“We have an unbelievable host of candidates that are absolutely ready to govern, and we will be putting forth our plans as we traverse through this election period,” he said. “I will say though that there’s now been two polls that have shown that just to take one moment of happiness along this trail, and there has been a lot of people that have reached out to us and shared their absolute pleasure with what they’re seeing.”
Mossop said that the various upheavals within the Conservative party haven’t hurt the party much but there is still plenty of time left in the race. He said the Green vote is especially changeable, with 43 per cent of voters who plan to vote Green saying they may change their vote, with the NDP potentially in line to benefit.
Stewart Prest, a University of B.C. political scientist, said the new Leger poll “underscores what a dice-roll this election is,” which he believes is dangerous for the NDP.
“Discontent is not a new thing among voters regarding the direction of the province, but here we’re seeing, if anything, that that share of voters sounding discontented with the direction of the province that’s growing. That puts a pretty tight lid on how much room there is for the NDP to grow,” said Prest.