BURSTThe fallout over leaked texts sent from Democrats' Virginia attorney general nominee Jay Jones is putting Abigail Spanberger, the party's Virginia gubernatorial nominee, in a difficult position following what has otherwise been a relatively smooth campaign so far.
Spanberger was quick to condemn the text messages, saying in a statement Friday that she conveyed her “disgust” over them to Jones. However, her opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), swiftly tied Spanberger to Jones in an ad. And President Trump attacked the Democratic gubernatorial candidate over the controversy in a Truth Social post endorsing incumbent Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).
The development threatens to dog Spanberger heading into the first and only gubernatorial debate Thursday in Jones’s hometown of Norfolk, raising questions about how she will navigate it and what it could mean for her campaign.
“Spanberger lucks out in that she was not in a highly competitive race with" Earle-Sears, one Democratic strategist said. “However, this gives Winsome wings.”
“They’re already pushing out ads based on rhetoric and based on the Jay Jones situation. Before, Winsome didn’t really have anything,” the strategist added.
In contrast to Earle-Sears, Spanberger has remained laser-focused on kitchen table issues such as cost, affordability and federal workforce layoffs.
But the Jones controversy adds an unexpected twist to the off-year election that until now has been relatively low-key.
“There’s not a lot that actually gets through at this point in the cycle,” said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist who previously worked with Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) Spirit of Virginia PAC.
“They are going to have to make sure that everyone knows about this,” he continued. “You need to go and make sure the electorate is aware. So it absolutely will punch through, and how much of a difference it will make in the race is difficult to know.”
Virginia-based Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett praised Spanberger’s response to the controversy, noting the speed at which she addressed the issue.
“She’s done a very good job of being quick and proactive to make her feelings known widely,” Tribbett told The Hill.
In the days following the news of the text messages, Spanberger’s messaging has remained disciplined and consistent.
On Tuesday, Spanberger released her last ad before Thursday's gubernatorial debate, tying Earle-Sears to Trump. The strategy makes sense, given the president’s poor approval ratings in the Old Dominion; according to a recent Christopher Newport University poll, Trump holds a 41 percent approval rating and a 56 percent disapproval rating in the state.
It’s unclear how voters are reacting to the controversy, given there has been no public polling conducted yet in the wake of the text messages surfacing Friday.
Spanberger holds a 7.1 percentage point lead over Earle-Sears, according to the Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race. On top of that, hundreds of thousands of votes have already been cast in early voting, which began last month.
Democrats argue that factor puts them in a precarious position when considering whether Jones should drop out or not.
“This just isn’t a position we can have somebody just drop from and then bring somebody else on,” the Democratic strategist said. “We are too far into this.”
Republicans, on the other hand, argue Jones’s texts back Virginia Democrats up and down the ballot into a corner.
“It’s now shifted to being a larger statement about Virginia Democrats like Abigail Spanberger, like the state party who are trying to say, 'Yes, political violence is bad, but partisanship is our North Star here,'” said Matt Whitlock, a Virginia-based GOP strategist who has worked on a number of races in the state.
Democrats still maintain that the texting controversy ultimately is a Jones problem rather than a Spanberger problem. But that still does not lower the likelihood that she will be asked about Jones during Thursday’s debate. Earle-Sears will also likely use the controversy to attack Spanberger on stage.
“I don’t think she should do any more than she already has. She has directly addressed the words he has said, and the rest just needs to be up to him. I think it would be more embarrassing for her if she said with authority for him to drop out and he just didn’t,” the unnamed Democratic strategist said.
“I mean, for him to already enter the race knowing that this was something that existed out there takes a sort of boldness,” the strategist added. “I think that that kind of attitude will carry someone’s ego when they consider whether they should drop out or not.”