BURST
The number of home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley bump upwards from January to February, but experts say it is far too soon to say if pent-up demand will unleash itself into the spring.
“Open houses are definitely busier,” said Surrey-based real estate agent Mayur Arora.
He said “well-priced homes” are selling quickly and, in particular, detached houses with suites.
“Investors are on the sidelines, but there is definitely pent-up demand.”
There were 2,128 residential resale transactions across Metro Vancouver in February, representing a 46 per cent jump from January, according to data from real estate sales firm HouseSigma. However, those February sales were still 8.5 per cent below what they were in the same month last year.
The Greater Vancouver Realtors, which represents 14,500 agents across a smaller geographical area of Metro Vancouver, reported a similar trend. The association recorded 1,638 home sales in February, a 43 per cent increase from January. But the February sales were still 9.8 per cent below what they were a year earlier and 28.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average.
The same pattern appeared in the Fraser Valley, where the real estate board, which represents 5,000 agents, recorded 843 sales in February — a 36 per cent increase from January. But that was still an 8.4 per cent decrease from a year before and 38 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average.
Andrew Lis, the chief economist and vice-president of data and analytics with Greater Vancouver Realtors, said “it’s very normal for February to be higher than January. That pretty much always happens in the data.”
So far, the model he is working with forecasts a year that is looking a lot like last year, with around 25,000 sales by the end of the year.
He doesn’t make a public forecast for every month, but said that when he looks at the actual number of sales in January and February and compares them to his model, “We’re actually running a little bit ahead of where the model thought we were going to be.”
He emphasized that “it’s not by a lot.”
But it is an interesting early finding because “it may be that there is actually a little bit more demand out there than the modelling was capturing. Models are models. There’s imperfection in them, but that’s one of the things that I’m watching pretty closely because if that picks up into the spring, that could mark a bit of a shift in the vibe, if you will, around the market.”
Back on the ground, others also see some signs that pent-up demand could be returning.
Jeremy Bator, a Surrey-based HouseSigma real estate agent, had a client last week who received multiple offers.
“Things are definitely picking up,” he said.
He said that in addition to detached homes with suites, townhomes and condo resale properties are getting more attention when sellers “appear to be pricing more realistically up front, rather than testing the waters and withdrawing later.”
He points to HouseSigma information that tracks condo listing terminations and expirations.
Over the last 12 months, there was an average of 2,000 such terminations or expirations per month. That number fell to 1,340 in February.
That drop and the accompanying increase in sales could be a signal that sellers are pricing more realistically.
Are you a prospective homebuyer who’s standing on the sidelines or someone who’s recently decided to take the leap into the housing market? We’d like to hear from you. Please email reporter Joanne Lee-Young at jlee-young@postmedia.com