BURST
After a 21-month wait, the Alberta government has released to Postmedia the results of its 2023 provincial pension plan engagement survey, which show nearly two-thirds of respondents were opposed to leaving the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
Postmedia first filed a request for responses from the survey a week after it opened in September of 2023, and followed up with multiple further requests in the following months, all of which produced either no records or records that were entirely redacted.
Last December, the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner (OIPC) opened reviews into the government’s response to three requests: one seeking a summary of the survey results, a second looking for copies of the open-answer questions in the survey, and a third for completed copies of the pension workbook that was distributed in late 2023.
Mediation with the OIPC prompted the government to release copies of the workbooks to Postmedia in May and the survey’s long-form answers on Tuesday.
The finance ministry released a summary of the survey results to Postmedia on Wednesday outside of the access to information process.
According to that summary, 63 per cent of respondents were opposed to an Alberta pension plan (APP), 10 per cent were in favour of an APP, and 12 per cent were undecided or unsure.
The remaining 15 per cent were other forms of responses, including questions about implementation, suggestions for other alternatives, non-answers, and incomplete responses.
More than 94,000 Albertans completed the survey between its opening on Sept. 21, 2023, and its conclusion on Dec. 10, 2023.
The government later posted the long-form answers it provided to Postmedia to its public open date site.
Referendum required
The government issued a statement to Postmedia following the release of the results.
“While recent surveys on an APP show public opinion may be shifting, we will continue to engage with Albertans on this topic through the Alberta Next panel. The Alberta Pension Protection Act guarantees we won’t replace the CPP with an Alberta Pension Plan unless Albertans approve it in a referendum.”
Polls from Leger in August and again last February both showed around 23 per cent support for leaving the CPP.
A government-commissioned survey by respected pollster Janet Brown found that 55 per cent of those who had made up their minds on the issue were in favour of a provincial pension plan if it “guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits” than the existing federal plan.
The office of the chief actuary of Canada released its interpretation of Canada’s dated pension withdrawal protocols and produced a formula that concurs with one put forward by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe.
Tombe told The Canadian Press in December that Alberta’s share of the pot would be about $135 billion, or roughly 40 per cent of the $334-billion estimate Alberta’s commissioned report by Lifeworks cited upon its release in September of 2023 .
‘The whole APP proposal is illogical’
Responses to the survey expressed skepticism at the benefits of a provincial pension plan as well as the province’s consultation process.
“A lower share simply exposes pensioners to a massive amount of risk in the case of investment downturns and failures. More risk with less payback indicates that the whole APP proposal is illogical and represents a really bad business decision,” reads one response.
Others feared the effect the push for a provincial pension plan would undercut Alberta’s efforts to improve its standing within Canada.
“The APP is going to be viewed outside of Alberta as anti-Canadian. This sentiment in the long term is going to make the rest of Canada less willing to address legitimate concerns Alberta has.”
Many respondents took aim at the survey itself, which was criticized for not presenting an option for those who wanted to remain in the CPP.
“This workbook does not ask if we even want an Alberta pension plan — I don’t want one,” reads one such reply.
The estimate from Lifeworks was repeatedly challenged as being too high.
“Lifeworks calculations are not supported by any knowledgeable actuarial specialist, and therefore the existing estimate is not likely to be achieved.”
Respondents also took issue with how an APP could be managed.
“The fund should not specifically fund Alberta investments that are speculative in nature. If a business cannot obtain financial backing from commercial and private lenders, the taxpayer should not be a source of investment funds,” reads one such reply.
“Leave it in the hands of trained people who know what they are doing,” reads another.
‘Is the juice worth the squeeze?’
Last September, Smith said an asset withdrawal lower than that estimated by Lifeworks would make a provincial plan less appealing.
“We wouldn’t be able to reduce your premiums, and we wouldn’t be able to increase your benefits,” she said on the Shaun Newman podcast.
“Is the juice worth the squeeze?”
At a May press conference, she said support for a referendum had yet to materialize.
“I’m not seeing that there’s an appetite to put it to the people at the moment.”
— With files from the Canadian Press