Trump tax cuts would add $3.8 trillion to debt: CBO

President Trump's tax policies would add roughly $3.8 trillion to the national debt, according to an analysis released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The tax provisions of the House GOP's "one big, beautiful bill" to implement Trump's domestic policy agenda would slash federal revenues by roughly 10 percent of the current national debt over the next 10 years, the CBO found.

House Republicans are racing to finalize and pass the sweeping policy bill by Memorial Day, with the goal of cementing Trump's 2017 tax cut law and a wide range of other GOP priorities by July 4.

The bill would extend Trump's 2017 cuts to personal income tax rates, and also establish new tax deductions for tips, Social Security benefits, overtime pay and interest on loans used to purchase U.S.-made automobiles — all of which Trump proposed during his 2024 presidential campaign.

The measure also restores business tax deductions for research and development expenses and lowers the income tax rate for "passthrough" businesses, which pass on their tax liability to their owners.

Extending Trump's tax cuts and fulfilling his campaign trail promises are a top priority for Republican lawmakers, who are facing pressure to deliver economic relief to restive voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

But the bill faces serious obstacles in the House due in part to a controversial provision meant to shield taxpayers in wealthier parts of the country.

A group of five House Republicans from high-tax suburban districts have vowed to vote against the bill unless the GOP increases the proposed state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from the $30,000 in the current measure. Several of those Republicans, including Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), are considered vulnerable to lose their seats in the 2026 midterms.

While the group has reported progress in talks with House leadership, GOP fiscal hawks have fiercely opposed making concessions that would have little impact in their deeply red districts.

And even if House Republicans can unite around a bill, their Senate GOP counterparts would prefer to break up the package into smaller pieces. Doing so could trigger a battle between Republicans in both chambers as Congress faces a summer deadline to raise the debt ceiling.