BURSTAn upset victory in a state Senate race in Pennsylvania is the latest development to give Democrats hope of growing grassroots enthusiasm in the first few months of President Trump’s second term.
Democratic East Petersburg Mayor James Malone’s surprise victory over his GOP rival in a Trump-friendly district follows other under-the-radar wins the party has pulled off since the beginning of the year.
It’s another example of the party performing well in off-year elections when President Trump isn’t on the ballot. But it also comes as anger rises among the base over Trump’s actions and how Washington Democrats have responded, and comes days before the first major election of the year with Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race.
“I think it shows that the Republicans have a problem, and while the Democrats have their problems as well at the national level, in the end, the Democratic voters are coming home and people are upset with what’s going on in Washington,” said Pennsylvania Democratic strategist Mike Mikus.
If any eyes were on Pennsylvania heading into Tuesday, they were on a state House special election happening simultaneously. Democrat Dan Goughnour seemed likely to win the open House seat and restore a Democratic majority in the body.
While the district leaned Democratic and Goughnour won easily, Democrats were still eager to pick up the seat to end the even split that had been in place since former Rep. Matt Gergely’s (D) death in January.
But the real event of the night happened later, when Malone pulled off a surprise in a district that Trump won with 57 percent of the vote and Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) won with 56 percent in November.
As of Wednesday, Malone led Republican Josh Parsons, a Lancaster County commissioner, by about 500 votes.
Adding to the gravity of the upset, a Democrat had not represented the district since the 1970s, before Lancaster County became part of it, and former state Sen. Ryan Aument (R) ran unopposed in his last election in 2022.
Aument resigned from his seat in December to become state director for McCormick.
Stella Sexton, the vice chair of the Lancaster County Democratic Committee and the co-campaign manager of Malone’s campaign, attributed the win to the strong turnout that the campaign was able to bring out, a willingness to put in the work necessary and a continued belief that Malone could win.
She said the Malone campaign called the campaign for Iowa state Sen. Mike Zimmer (D) the day after his upset victory in January to understand their playbook. Zimmer won a special state Senate election in a district that voted for Trump by 21 points in 2024.
“That was sort of the road map for us,” Sexton said.
She said the campaign also believed in the strengths of Malone, whom she said is well-liked in his community.
Sexton said the target was to reach enough Democrats in suburban areas and senior living retirement communities that has many steady voters likely to turn out.
“We focused on the mission, we focused on getting the work done, and we focused on voter contact,” she said.
While Republicans will still maintain a 27-23 majority in the state Senate, Democrats said they were thrilled with the win.
Former Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair T.J. Rooney credited the win with a “Herculean” effort from the Malone campaign and state party. He said Parsons’s strong support for Trump gave an opening for backlash against Trump to play out in the race.
“If taking the temperature of the electorate at the moment, sure, it's not a good look for Republicans writ large,” Rooney said. “But on top of it, a candidate who is like very Trumpian in in his manner, it just makes the narrative that much more effective.”
The win is just the latest of several low-key victories and improvements on past performances that the Democratic Party has had since Trump took office.
The results also come on the heels of a series of rallies that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have held throughout the country, energizing large crowds of attendees.
But members of both parties were split on how much can be extrapolated from the results for where the parties and the public’s view of the Trump administration stand.
“It's a great victory... full stop,” Rooney said. “But it needs to be replicated before we can declare any sort of definitive trend.”
Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman (D) said the victory is “great” for the party and should be celebrated but called back to similar special election wins for Democrats in 2017 and 2018, hinting that the sample size is just too small for larger meaning for momentum.
“Remember in the first term, everybody thought that every special election was an oracle, and that's just not true,” he said.
Republican strategist Josh Novotney said he believes Parsons’s campaign felt the seat was safe and didn’t have enough of a push to turn out the vote. He said what happened in the district is common with one party being in power and one not.
“When the party that's in the minority is not liking what's going on, their only voice is definitely to get out and vote at every little local and statewide election,” he said. “And obviously, Democrats had a ground campaign.”
But he added that the sample size is too small to say an enthusiasm gap is occurring. He said Democrats may try to advance a narrative of voters rejecting Trump’s policies, but he said Trump’s poll numbers are still decent and pointed to polling showing record low approval of the Democratic Party.
But others argued the election could have other implications, especially if Democrats can build on it in the upcoming state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and special elections in Florida next week.
Mikus said the result speaks to a larger issue for the GOP in which some voters only vote when Trump is on the ballot.
“There is a significant slice of their base that only shows up if Donald Trump's on the ballot. There are people who are Trump supporters, they're not Republicans, regardless of their registration,” he said. “And that has always been clear. That's why Democrats did well, better than expected in 2022.”
Democrats have broadly performed well in elections over the past decade when Trump hasn’t been on the ballot, winning contested special elections, making big gains in the 2018 midterms and avoiding significant losses in the 2022 midterms.
Republican strategist Samuel Chen, who previously worked for former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) and former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), noted Dent’s post on X telling followers to watch the special election for former Rep. Mike Waltz’s (R-Fla.) seat next week.
Waltz’s district is heavily conservative leaning, but the Democratic candidate has significantly outraised his GOP opponent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said the Republican will underperform.
Chen said observers should expect Democrats to perform somewhat better while Republicans have the White House and both houses of Congress, but each race will vary and candidate quality matters. He said Malone focused on local issues instead of some national talking points of the unsuccessful Harris campaign.
“Democrats have the winds here. The way these trends go, this election should be good for them, but they are lacking leadership on the national level,” he said, pointing to the frustration that some Democrats have had with their congressional leaders and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), in particular, for how they are responding to the Trump administration.
“If you're a Democrat, you look at this and you say, there's opportunity. The winds are in our favor. There's opportunity,” Chen said, if the party picks the right candidates.
“What you don't want to do if you're a Republican is dust it off and say, ‘Oh, this is a one off. This guy was just lucky.’”
Caroline Vakil contributed.