BURSTA few more squads punched their tickets to the post-season last weekend.
The Minnesota Vikings clinched a spot when the Seattle Seahawks lost, the Pittsburgh Steelers clinched when the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts lost, and the Houston Texans secured the AFC South with their victory and the Colts’ defeat.
Who else might clinch this weekend? We look ahead to the Week 16 odds. Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread using lines from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
These two teams played earlier in the season, with the Chargers winning by seven. I’ll take the Broncos getting three points on the road this time.
The Chargers got demolished by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. While I don’t think Broncos quarterback Bo Nix throws as well as Baker Mayfield, Denver’s defence, which leads the league in sacks, will slow the Chargers down enough to keep pace.
PICK: Broncos +2.5 (-105)
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This game depends greatly on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury as Carson Wentz suiting up totally changes things. Given the current spread, I’ll take the points with the Texans.
The Texans’ defence has been inconsistent, but the Chiefs are one of four teams that have not scored 30 points in a game this season.
Take the Texans +3, but I’m prepared to hedge with some live betting.
PICK: Texans +3 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers’ offence was stagnant against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Ravens exploded against the New York Giants. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson tossed five touchdowns.
Still, in a game with two teams that know each other so well and a much easier Ravens defence to solve, I’ll take the road team getting nearly a touchdown.
PICK: Steelers +6 (-110)
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’ll flat-out say this is not a fun game to pick.
On paper, the Falcons have more talent, but their 15-9 win on Monday Night Football over the lowly Las Vegas Raiders left much to be desired.
Falcons head coach Raheem Morris’ post-game comments cracked the door for Michael Penix Jr. to get a start as the season closes, but for now, I’ll hold my nose and take the Giants.
PICK: Giants +8.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
The Lions suffered three more injuries: Carlton Davis, Alim McNeil, and David Montgomery. Besides Montgomery, the Lions’ offence is intact, and I believe this team can win shootouts.
That said, the Bears’ offence has been lacklustre since head coach Matt Eberflus was fired after the Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions.
Look for a bigger Lions win here on the road than a few weeks back.
PICK: Lions -6.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were favoured for the first time in more than 30 games last week and lost by 16.
They allow a league-high 173 rushing yards per game and are taking on a Cardinals offence that ranks seventh in rushing yards per game at 141.5. The Cardinals not only have a stable of running backs, but QB Kyler Murray should be able to do some damage with his legs.
I’m not taking the Panthers here.
PICK: Cardinals -4 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets
The Jets escaped the Jaguars with a win, but they allowed a lot of production to Jaguars QB Mac Jones (294 passing yards, two touchdowns).
Yes, they intercepted two passes, but this week, they’re taking on a Rams offence with multiple options to beat them, including wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and RB Kyren Williams.
I don’t trust the Jets defence.
PICK: Rams -3.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders got an ugly Week 15 on the road against the New Orleans Saints and now host an Eagles team that defeated them by eight earlier this season on the road.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is dealing with a broken finger, but the passing game came alive last week as he threw for 290 yards and two scores.
They’ll cover on the road, thanks to their stout defence.
PICK: Eagles -3.5 (-105)
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns offence couldn’t score against the Chiefs last week, but the Bengals defence can’t stop anyone. They allowed 27 points to a Titans squad that threw four picks, including one pick-six. Now, the Bengals are allowing 27.6 points per game.
That said, the Browns are going with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in this game.
While Winston is a bit erratic as a passer, he offers an upside that “DTR,” a player who’s never thrown for more than 165 yards in a game, doesn’t.
PICK: Bengals -7.5 (-105)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans’ defence has been quite solid this season, allowing 297.4 yards per game, which is second-best in the league. They could’ve beaten the Bengals if not for three interceptions, including a pick-six, from Levis.
The Colts beat them by three earlier this season, but I’ll take the Titans getting 3.5 simply because Colts QB Anthony Richardson is impossible to trust.
The Titans have at least shown they’re capable of scoring lately.
PICK: Titans +3.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks QB Geno Smith suffered a knee injury in Week 15. While initial reports are good, I’m still taking the Vikings, regardless of whether he plays.
Smith is third in the NFL in interceptions with 13, and the Vikings average 1.43 interceptions per game. Additionally, the Seahawks have allowed multiple touchdowns in three straight games.
The Vikings are pushing for the division title. They’ll win and cover.
PICK: Vikings -3 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills allowed 43 points per game over their last two, but those came against noteworthy offences.
Laying 14 points in a divisional game is tough, but on the road against a Bills offence averaging 35 points per game over their last eight, I’m not sure the Patriots can keep up.
I’ll hesitantly side with the Bills while not feeling too confident in either direction.
PICK: Bills -14 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Like the Falcons and Giants, this will be another tough watch.
The Jaguars have the better QB with Mac Jones and more playmakers. The Raiders had essentially no running game against the Falcons.
This game is nearly a pick ’em, so I’ll side with the better QB, I suppose.
PICK: Jaguars +1 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are only favoured by one point at home, so this is essentially a pick ’em.
I’ll side with the home team here. The 49ers have allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their last four games and give up one rushing touchdown per game to opposing RBs.
I like the Dolphins’ stable of offensive pieces more at this point.
PICK: Dolphins -1 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ offence has come alive with Cooper Rush at QB, but their defence will struggle against this Buccaneers offence.
They’re averaging 29.9 points per game (fourth), and QB Baker Mayfield has had seven touchdown passes over the last two weeks.
I’m willing to lay the 4 points here. The Buccaneers’ offence is tough to keep up with.
PICK: Buccaneers -4 (-110)
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
It’s unclear if the Saints will start Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler, but it doesn’t matter. The Saints’ offence has been horrendous recently, averaging less than 15 points over their last three games. They now travel to Lambeau Field to take on a Packers defence that averages one interception per game.
I fully expect the Packers, who are fourth in total yards per game at 375.9, to dominate this game and cover.
PICK: Packers -14.5 (-110)
