BURSTWhile Saturday night’s UFC 310 pay-per-view cleared up who will be next to challenge for championship gold in one division, it also left us with big questions about a couple others, as well as some interesting possibilities to consider for a few established names and some additional key weight classes.
As has been the custom here on Monday’s following a numbered event all year, it’s time to unpack things and forecast what comes next for some of this past weekend’s biggest names.
ANOTHER REMATCH FOR PANTOJA?
Alexandre Pantoja blew through Kai Asakura to retain his flyweight title in the UFC 310 main event, taking the fight to the challenger from the outset and only relenting once he had put the debuting newcomer to sleep early in the second.
This wasn’t a case of Asakura being unprepared for the moment or out of his depths. This was Pantoja asserting his dominance, reminding everyone why he’s the top man in the flyweight division, and signalling to all those that want to challenge him they’re going to have to go through hell in order to wrestle the belt away from him.
Making quick work of Asakura leaves the UFC with a dilemma when it comes to how to book the 125-pound champion next, as two equally compelling options exist.
The first, a rematch with Brandon Royval, whom Pantoja dominated last December and submitted earlier in their UFC careers, but who has since gone on to register key wins over Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira to cement his standing as the No. 1 contender in the division.
The second is a matchup against Kai Kara-France, who returned from more than a year on the sidelines at UFC 305 to register a first-round stoppage win over Steve Erceg, who was coming off his competitive title matchup against Pantoja at UFC 301 a few months earlier in Rio de Janeiro.
Personally, I lean towards the pairing with Kara-France even though this is also a rematch and a one-win streak traditionally isn’t enough to merit a championship opportunity for someone that isn’t a former champion or title challenger. Pantoja won a two-round exhibition bout over Kara-France during their appearance on The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions back in 2016.
Many, including yours truly, also believe Kara-France merited the win in his clash with Amir Albazi in 2023 prior to being sidelined with a concussion, and a matchup that offers some level of uncertainty trumps a matchup we’ve seen multiple times and more recently.
Pantoja manhandled Royval last year and submitted him the first time around, and while the Factory X man has looked very good since, he’s also down 0-2 against the champion and hustling him back into a third bout with the Brazilian feels hurried at this point. It’s also why having Royval fight Taira back in Octagon was a calculated risk that didn’t pay off, as now the ascending Taira needs to regroup and rebuild following the loss, and Royval more or less remains in place despite a tremendous win.
Get some matchups built and in the books in the first quarter of 2025 — Asakura in a trilogy versus old Rizin rival Manel Kape, or maybe Bruno Silva, Royval against the winner, and perhaps Moreno against Asu Almabayev, though potentially sacrificing another ascending name to an established former champion is risky — and see how things line up heading into Q2 and beyond.
In the meantime, get Pantoja lined up with Kara-France, who also holds a notable knockout win over former champion Cody Garbrandt, and schedule it before the midway point of the year.
FAMILIAR BOOKING FOR WELTERWEIGHT TITLE
The bout originally scheduled to headline UFC 310 is back on for 2025, as Shavkat Rakhmonov claimed a hard-fought victory over Ian Machado Garry in the battle of unbeaten welterweight contenders that served as the co-main event.
Rakhmonov took the opening two rounds on the strength of a couple heavier, more effective shots, and was able to fend off the Irish standout’s rally, doing well to avoid getting choked in the fifth round to escape with the win.
That means Rakhmonov will once again be the one to line up opposite Belal Muhammad when the welterweight champion makes his first title defence, likely in the spring. The two faced off in the Octagon following the contest, and while many envisioned the challenger storming through the champion and likely finishing him, like he had every opponent prior to Saturday night, his performance at UFC 310 likely shifted the perception of how this fight could play out for a great number of people.
Muhammad’s pace and pressure are unrelenting, and with Rakhmonov no longer positioned as the all-conquering boogeyman of the division, the betting odds for that future pairing tightened a little in the wake of what transpired at T-Mobile Arena.
While Machado Garry came away from the bout with his first career loss, his stock rose regardless of the outcome. He showed moxie in quickly raising his hand to face a former teammate and training partner, and gave an outstanding accounting of himself during the contest, warming into the bout and testing Rakhmonov in a way no one had previously.
Originally slated to headline for the first time this coming weekend against Joaquin Buckley in Tampa, a main event assignment opposite former welterweight kingpin Leon Edwards when the Octagon touches down in London in March feels like an easy sell that carries significant weight in the talent-rich division.
THE HEAVYWEIGHT CONUNDRUM
Heavyweight just keeps getting more and more complicated.
As if having the whole Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, “Will He? Won’t He?” saga looming overhead, things at the top of the division got even cloudier over the weekend as Ciryl Gane emerged victorious in his rematch with Alexander Volkov, except the two judges that awarded the former interim champ might be the only two people in the building (or watching at home) that believed “Bon Gamin” had done enough to merit the victory.
Even Gane wasn’t so sure, as he darted out of the Octagon following the official result before hobbling back in, expressing his disappointment in his performance to Joe Rogan, and explaining that he broke a couple toes early in the fight.
So now we have an undisputed champion whose future is uncertain, an interim champ that is chomping at the bit to face try and unify the titles, and a No. 1 contender in Gane who has already lost badly to Jones and is coming off a tepid showing where he eked one out against Volkov.
Super.
The hope here has to be that Jones decides what he’s going to do in a somewhat timely fashion, and things can start moving forward: either with a bout between Jones and Aspinall, followed by contender bouts up and down the line to sort things out behind them, or with “Bones” bidding the sport adieu or simply vacating the title in order to allow things to move forward in his wake.
Either way, Gane still has more that he’s going to need to do to convince people of his standing as a top contender. A date with Curtis Blaydes would make a great deal of sense, while Volkov can face off with the winner of the impending clash between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac at UFC 311.
QUICK HITTERS FOR THE REST OF THE WINNERS
Bryce Mitchell, Dooho Choi: Both earned impressive third-round finishes, and Choi called for the matchup. The timelines are in sync, it’s a fun clash of styles, and beating Kron Gracie shouldn’t really open the door for Mitchell to fight forward in such a densely packed division.
Dominick Reyes: He’s earned consecutive stoppage wins this year and is starting to make a little headway in the 205-pound ranks again. A matchup with Aleksandar Rakic, who has dropped three straight, but remains ahead of Reyes in the pecking order, feels like a good fit to see where each man stands to start their 2025 campaigns.
Vicente Luque: When an all-action fighter like Luque earns a 52-second finish and calls for a date with Jorge Masvidal in Miami, you give him a fight with Jorge Masvidal in Miami and call it a day.
Movsar Evloev: There are only two men ahead of him in the rankings now that Max Holloway has declared he’s moving to lightweight, and a date with either makes sense. Personally, I prefer a five-round, full-camp rematch with Diego Lopes over a bout with Yair Rodriguez who’s coming off consecutive defeats, but maybe that’s just me.
Bryan Battle: Had he not missed weight for his bout with Randy Brown by a considerable margin, I would have been ready to catapult him into a matchup with someone like Geoff Neal. But given the miss and the narrow margin of victory, let’s do an “only one can move forward” pairing with Oban Elliott instead.
Eryk Anders: “Ya Boi” said he’s looking for exciting matchups as he winds down his career. Dustin Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win and is allergic to being in a boring fight; make it happen.
Joshua Van: After picking up his fifth win in six UFC starts and (most likely) breaking into the rankings, a date with divisional stalwart and human litmus test Tim Elliott would be good times.
Michael Chiesa: “Maverick” celebrated his 37th birthday with a second-round submission win over Max Griffin. He wants to keep trying to push forward in the division, so what about Chiesa vs. Gilbert Burns in the co-main event of the February 22 Fight Night card in Seattle?
Chase Hooper: Last month, I said Jim Miller should face Hooper if he got by Clay Guida. “The Dream” submitted the veteran in the first round, so let’s make this one happen and see how Hooper does against the most experienced fighter on the roster.
Kennedy Nzechukwu: After registering a second first-round finish in three months, I think Nzechukwu has moved past running back his original booking with Marcos Rogério de Lima. A matchup with unbeaten Brit Mick Parkin in London would be a good test for both men and a sound addition to that card.
