BURSTOTTAWA — After 27 games, the Senators have yet to mount a three-game winning streak.
Says a lot, doesn’t it? Four times this season they have managed back-to-back wins, but never yet got to three in a row. Once again their streak chances were snuffed out on Sunday in Ottawa’s 4-2 loss to the New York Islanders.
A 12-13-2 record speaks for itself.
The Senators are a streak away from making some headwind in the Eastern Conference, and a few losses away from falling apart at the seams.
Let’s examine why they haven’t been able to consistently win.
First, the Senators are an elite offensive team, right?
Wrong.
They have not scored five goals or more in a game for over a month; the last time was October 29th against St. Louis when they dropped eight.
The two main reasons: A lack of scoring from defencemen and from depth.
All their high-powered offensively skilled players have produced. Tim Stutzle is on pace for 103 points, Brady Tkachuk is on pace for 88 points, Drake Batherson is on pace for 85 points and Josh Norris is on pace for 36 goals — a combined 44 of the Senators’ 82 goals. However, former Senator Jakob Chychrun, who was traded away in the off-season for Nick Jensen has eight goals — more than the entire Senators defence corps with five goals, which is tied for last in the NHL.
A bump in goals from the backline is needed to boost the win column.
Meanwhile, the scoring from anyone not named Adam Gaudette on the bottom two lines is stark, which led him to his promotion to the top six.
When Gaudette scores should it be considered depth scoring?
All four of his goals since the end of November, during which he has been promoted, demoted and then once again promoted, came with him playing top six. Regardless, his goal-scoring has been a much-needed spark. Outside of Gaudette’s 13 goals, it’s been a goal desert for the bottom six. Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins, Michael Amadio, Noah Gregor, Zack Ostapchuk, David Perron, and Ridly Greig have combined for 10 goals in 27 games.
Production is especially needed from Pinto, who has gone 14 games without a point, 13 of them since his return from an undisclosed injury.
He spoke to Sportsnet about his challenge in late November.
“I’m still trying to find it a bit. I think some games are good, some games are bad,” said Pinto. “It’s just trying to find consistency. Body’s feeling better, and I’m just trying to get my game back. It’s not for a lack of trying, but it’s frustrating sometimes. Just trying to find it and I’m confident I will.”
Pinto has good underlying metrics, with a 52.72 percent shot share and 54.59 percent expected goals share at five-on-five according to Natural Stat Trick. But the Senators have been outscored 15 to six at five-on-five when Pinto was on the ice.
Pinto finds his self-belief from the adversity he overcame last season with his gambling-related suspension.
“I think it could be much worse,” Pinto told Sportsnet.ca. “I know fans want and I want us to do well, and obviously we want to do well.”
“I know how to dig myself out of negatives and adversity. I know I’ll get out of this.”
If your third-line centre has one goal and three points a third of the way into the season, it’s not a recipe for going on a hot streak. Nevertheless, Pinto will almost assuredly not have a 3.4 shooting percentage all season.
The Senators’ scoring issues have not been due to a lack of shot volume. They are eighth in the league in shots on goal this season but 23rd in shooting percentage. Meanwhile, they are eighth in shot share at 52.50 per cent and ninth in expected goals share at 52.22 percent at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Everything tells you this team should be putting up goals. One may ask why the shots haven’t translated to more goals, where the Senators ranked 15th in goals per game.
Every shot on goal isn’t worth the same.
The Senators are 20th in their ratio of high-danger chances for versus against. Their problems are more of a byproduct of their lack of high-danger chances where they are sitting third last in the NHL at five-on-five, but eighth in high danger shots allowed at five-on-five. What’s with that discrepancy?
Their coach acknowledges the issue.
“I think there’s been some moments where we’ve been on the outside too much,” said Trevor Green.
“So, we’re definitely not a team that is a shot volume just to be a shot volume team. And I’d rather not shoot the puck if there’s no one there from the outside, than shoot it.”
Some of it is shooting, but the Senators need to create more high-danger opportunities.
The good news is they’ve limited opponents. So, how are they losing if they aren’t letting teams get high-quality chances consistently?
A bad penalty kill would be the answer.
The Senators adjusted their penalty kill this season, moving to a diamond formation under Green. They have the eighth-worst penalty kill and have given up a goal on the PK in eight of their last 10 games.
Simply put, “Our penalty kill needs to be better,” said Green after the Senators allowed two goals short-handed against the New York Islanders on Sunday.
Early in the season players were still getting adjusted to the diamond formation.
“I think the system’s wise; I think guys are really starting to grasp it,” Nick Jensen told Sportsnet.ca in late November. “I know at the beginning it was very new to me and very unusual compared to the ways I’ve (been) used to play, which is a little bit on the more aggressive side.”
The problem is that the Senators have given up too many grade-A opportunities, a prime example being when Kyle Palmieri walked into the slot with nobody marking him to score the winning goal on Sunday night. Despite the struggles down a man, the Senators have used the same grouping and formation on the penalty kill all season.
The Senators need to figure out their penalty kill, fast. What they are doing simply isn’t working.
If it’s broken, change it.
The failure to put together a streak is on the netminders, too.
The Senators have the 24th-worst save percentage at .826 percent on the penalty kill.
The good news is that Linus Ullmark seems to be heating up. In Ullmark’s last four starts, he has a .939 save percentage and 1.96 goals against average, 2.01 goals above expected, while saving 34 of 37 high-danger shots. However, Anton Forsberg gave up three goals on 12 shots against the New York Islanders on Sunday. The Senators are 8-2-1 when their goaltenders post a .900 or better save percentage.
Saves heal all wounds.
The pathway to a streak unfolding is clear. Depth and defensive scoring, kill penalties and play Ullmark.
