BURSTWith Week 14 over, so too are bye weeks. From Week 15 to 18, the full slate of 32 NFL teams will be in action as the playoff races intensify.
With all that action and some juicy matchups set for this weekend, here are my Week 15 picks against the spread with odds from the BetMGM sportsbook (lines as of Wednesday morning).
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
These teams played earlier this season, with the Rams coming away with a three-point home win. I’m taking them here, too, as the underdog.
The duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at wide receiver came up big in their Week 14 win over the Buffalo Bills. The 49ers continue to deal with several running back injuries, which now includes rookie running back Isaac Guerendo.
PICK: Rams +3.0 (-110)
Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints
Saints quarterback Derek Carr is expected to miss several weeks with a hand injury. While it’s unclear who the starting QB will be between Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, the Saints offence hasn’t scored more than 14 over the past two games.
The Saints allow 134.2 rushing yards (25th) and over one rushing touchdown to RBs per game. The Commanders are a top-three rushing squad. They’ll (no pun intended) run away with this one.
PICK: Commanders -7.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs are 10-0 in one-score games. In other words, they’ve played in a one-score game in all but three contests this season.
The Browns, led by QB Jameis Winston, are a volatile bunch, but given how the Chiefs offence has been operating and Winston’s ability to throw 50-plus times at a moment’s notice, I’ll lean toward the Browns covering but losing at home.
PICK: Browns +4 (-105)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans managed just six points in a home loss to the Jaguars.
While the Bengals have had some bad luck recently in winning games despite their prolific offence, I don’t anticipate that being an issue here. Bengals QB Joe Burrow has thrown for three touchdowns or more in five straight games and has 300-plus passing yards in four of the last five.
The Titans average 17.5 points per game, the third-least in the NFL.
PICK: Bengals -5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
The Texans are coming off a bye to host the Dolphins.
The Dolphins offence has scored 32 points or more in three of the last four games.
The Texans’ defence allows two passing touchdowns per game, and the Dolphins have two of the best receivers on their roster: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
I’ll take the Dolphins as road underdogs.
PICK: Dolphins +3 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
The Ravens are also coming off a bye week and will take on the Giants, who possess the fourth-worst run defence in the NFL, allowing 141.7 yards per game.
Their offence has looked completely inept with Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito under centre, and they average a league-low 14.9 points per game.
This spread is massive, but I cannot take the Giants.
PICK: Ravens -16 (-110)
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars came away with a 10-6 win over the Titans, but it wasn’t pretty. QB Mac Jones threw two interceptions.
Here, they face a Jets team with an offence that will be able to move the ball more reliably with rookie RB Isaiah Davis and WRs Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson.
QB Aaron Rodgers went for over 300 in Week 14.
They’ll win and cover on the road. The Jaguars can’t score any points.
PICK: Jets -3.5 (-105)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are favoured for the first time in two seasons, and I expect them to win and cover the spread.
The Cowboys allow 141.9 rushing yards per game (third-most), which bodes well for Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, who has over 1,000 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns this season.
Panthers QB Bryce Young has just two interceptions over the last five games.
PICK: Panthers -2.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Buccaneers were without rookie RB Bucky Irving last week, and he could miss Week 15, too.
Either way, the Buccaneers are set to play on the road against a stout Chargers defence, allowing a league-low 15.9 points per game.
The Chargers defence also picks off one pass per game. They should have rookie WR Ladd McConkey back as well.
The Chargers edge it out at home against a great Buccaneers offence.
PICK: Chargers -3 (-105)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been cruising lately, winning three straight and scoring 29 or more in each.
They’ll host the Colts who have an excellent rushing threat in QB Anthony Richardson, but I do not trust him as a passer.
The Broncos average nearly one pick per game and have allowed just one rushing score to an opposing QB.
PICK: Broncos -4 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has turned the ball over at least once in his last four games. The Patriots average only 17 points per game, the second lowest in the NFL.
New England has only allowed one rushing touchdown all season to a QB, but it came in Week 13 against the Colts QB, a player much like Cardinals signal-caller Kyler Murray, who’s known to run.
PICK: Cardinals -5.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
This is one of those games where I’d take the underdog because both are so great. In this case, it’s the Bills who are on the road.
Bills QB Josh Allen had three rushing and three passing touchdowns in Week 14, the first ever to accomplish this.
The Lions are still beaten up on defence and will be tasked with stopping a Bills rushing attack that includes Allen.
PICK: Bills + 2.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ passing offence is second worst in the league at 180.6 yards per game. Yes, they have the best rushing offence, at 190.5 yards per game, but the Steelers also have the fourth-best run defence, surrendering a mere 91.5 rushing yards per outing.
The Eagles have played the last two games close, winning by one score or less. The Steelers cover, but the Eagles win another tight one.
PICK: Steelers +5.5 (-120)
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams have QBs that turn the ball over a bunch. Together, they had 23 interceptions. Coincidentally, both teams average close to one pick per game.
That said, Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love hasn’t thrown a pick in the last three games, and the Seahawks allow close to 110 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
I’ll take the road favourite.
PICK: Packers -3 (-105)
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
The last game took overtime to decide, but the Vikings won by six.
Vikings QB Sam Darnold had a massive Week 14 performance, throwing for 347 yards and five touchdowns.
At home for the third week in a row, I’ll roll with the red-hot Vikings, especially with the Bears coming off a 25-point loss.
PICK: Vikings -7 (-105)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are down to Desmond Ridder at QB, who, coincidentally, was drafted by the Falcons.
The Falcons cannot generate any pressure on opposing QBs, but I still don’t trust the Raiders’ offence whatsoever. They average just 79.1 rushing yards per game, the least in the league.
The Falcons have better options on offence and I’m not sure, despite the flaws of the Falcons defence, the Raiders will be able to contend.
PICK: Falcons -4 (-110)
