BURSTWINNIPEG — Don’t let the standings fool you: the Winnipeg Jets are slipping.
Sure, they were bound to regress from a historic 15-1-0 start, and injuries to Dylan Samberg and Nikolaj Ehlers — but it doesn’t make their 8-9-1 record, or what’s led to it, any less alarming.
Wednesday’s 3-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks — where they were embarrassed by a lottery-bound team and failed to register a shot until the 8:30 mark of the first period — wasn’t a one-off. It was the tipping point of a five-week span where Winnipeg has struggled to impose its will on a consistent basis.
“We’ve got to hold each other accountable for what we’re doing out there. And we’re not doing that,” Ehlers told reporters after Wednesday’s game, his first game back after a nearly three-week-long absence. “So we’ve got some work to do.”
And changes to make.
They can’t rely on Connor Hellebuyck and their power play to bail them out every night. The defensive lapses we’ve seen — be it Neal Pionk’s giveaway on Wednesday’s game-winning goal, or the poor line change before the Vegas Golden Knights’ overtime winner last week — have been jarring, albeit not totally surprising for a blue line that’s got several players punching above their weight with Samberg sidelined.
What about the five-on-five offence drying up? Sure, part of it can be attributed to Ehlers’ absence. But not all of it.
At their peak, this was a team that was getting contributions from all four forward lines. When the top six had an off night, the bottom six was there to score a couple of goals and keep the team afloat.
During the vast majority of the first 16 games, each line, in its own way, could be counted on to spend prolonged periods in the offensive zone. Their defencemen were active, keeping plays alive at the blue line and joining the rush at opportunistic times. Everything was in sync.
But that hasn’t been the case over the last 18 games.
Aside from the top line of Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi and Kyle Connor the Jets’ forward lines aren’t winning their minutes. Yes, even Adam Lowry’s line.
The second line — even with Ehlers — is more of a middle-six ‘soft skill’ line than it is a bonafide second line. And the fourth line of Alex Iafallo, Morgan Barron and Rasmus Kupari has lost its mojo.
Scheifele’s line — or really, any NHL top line — isn’t good enough to carry the load offensively on its own. The Jets need more from their other three and they’d be ill-advised to rest on their laurels and say ‘Well, we had success with these lines before, so let’s give them some time to figure it out.’
Look at the chart above. Even when the Jets were playing their best hockey, the team’s underlying offensive metrics were average or slightly below average.
Head coach Scott Arniel has been hesitant to bring out the line blender — only doing so for short spurts mid-game, as opposed to trying something new to start a game — but something’s got to give.
Take this into account: No forward line has spent more time together this year than Mark Scheifele’s line. Adam Lowry’s line has spent the second most time together. And even with Ehlers missing nine games, the second line ranks ninth.
Given that the Jets a virtual lock to make the playoffs, now, more than ever, is the time to experiment with different things. This team has talked a lot about last spring’s early exit against Colorado, where they failed to elevate their game after a strong regular season. It was a stark reminder of how much things change in the playoffs. And better yet, the difference between a Stanley Cup contender and a strong regular season performer.
Albeit to a lesser degree, Winnipeg had a similar measuring stick game last week against the Vegas Golden Knights, who edged them out 16-4 in five-on-five high-danger shot attempts. Mind you, all but one of the Jets’ high-danger attempts came from Nikita Chibrikov, a player who was reassigned to the AHL on Thursday.
If Chibrikov’s brief NHL stint showed us anything, it’s that there’s value to having some ‘jam’ to compliment your top-six players. And perhaps that logic could help solve the Jets’ scoring woes. In order for that to happen, Arniel and Co. need to be comfortable with being uncomfortable. In this case, that starts with breaking up the first and third lines.
He makes history
Kevin He just might be Winnipeg’s fastest-rising prospect.
And he’ll forever have a place in history.
On Monday, the 2024 fourth-round pick became the first Chinese-born player to sign an NHL contract. It’s not often that you see a mid-round pick sign an entry-level deal just five months removed from being drafted. But the 18-year-old is off to an eye-opening draft year–plus one season with the OHL’s Niagara IceDogs, recording 23 goals and 43 points in 29 games this season.
According to Byron Bader and HockeyProspecting.com, players that produce like He has so far this year — compared to his counterparts, past and present, and scaled using NHL Equivalencies — have a 21 per cent chance of becoming NHL stars. (Bader defined a ‘star’ as a player that averages 0.70 points per game).
Captain Yager
Speaking of prospects, Brayden Yager was named captain of Team Canada for the 2025 World Juniors.
Yager, who was recently traded from the WHL’s Moose Jaw Warriors to the Lethbridge Hurricanes, has recorded 34 points in 23 games. The 19-year-old projects to be a top-six fixture for Canada and he’ll probably get a healthy dose of usage on the penalty kill, too.
It’ll be interesting to see how Yager fares in a best-on-best tournament. From what we saw at training camp, Yager’s probably two or three years away from being an NHL regular, although a strong world junior showing could change that.
