BURSTThe Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
• Trading Cozens could haunt Sabres
• Leafs well equipped to handle loss of Stolarz
• Will Isles deal Nelson?
• Kopitar’s late-career offensive renaissance
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and that’s the position the Buffalo Sabres find themselves in right now.
The Sabres have dropped 11 games in a row, two months into a season where there were massive expectations in Western New York. Buffalo had to make the playoffs this year or face major consequences and now they’re sitting closer to the league’s basement than the postseason cutoff line in the standings.
It’s clear the Sabres need a major shakeup to their roster, but there are significant risks when going down that path. Buffalo isn’t operating from a position of strength and the vultures are circling. That’s why Dylan Cozens keeps coming in trade rumours, as the young centre is struggling and looks nothing like the player who scored 30-plus goals and nearly 70 points a couple of years ago. His game took a step back last season and has plummeted this year, with Cozens currently pacing for just 36 points in 2024-25.
With all that said, any shrewd team knows it’s tough to find talented young centres and despite his recent struggles, Cozens would fit that bill. He’s a former top-10 pick who has proven he can play at a high level in this league and is still only 23 years old. There would be no shortage of suitors for Cozens and there are several teams that need help at centre. Nashville, Toronto, Calgary and several others come to mind immediately and that list would no doubt grow if the Sabres made Cozens available.
Before the Sabres even consider a Cozens trade, they need to exhaust all options to help him develop, which it feels like they haven’t done. His most common linemates this season have been Jack Quinn and Zach Benson, two other young players who are still finding their way. Quinn has been a healthy scratch at times and Cozens probably has to help carry them at this point. The Sabres have a very young roster and Jason Zucker is the only skater above 30 years of age, so perhaps adding a veteran or two wouldn’t hurt. Now obviously you don’t want to load your roster with a ton of older players, but playing with some more experience could be invaluable, not only for Cozens, but the rest of Buffalo’s young talent.
A good example to point to would be the San Jose Sharks. Prior to Macklin Celebrini making his debut this season, the Sharks added Tyler Toffoli and Alex Wennberg. Toffoli has been a solid offensive presence on Celebrini’s line and Wennberg helps to eat up some tougher minutes down the middle. Having a veteran winger to help Cozens and either Benson or Quinn on the other side would be very beneficial.
The other big issue at play here is Buffalo’s power play. When Cozens had that breakout season, he had 18 power play points but this year he’s only sitting a two. That’s in part because the Sabres have been awful with the man advantage, currently ranking 30th overall compared to a top-10 ranking in that big season for Cozens. They have to improve in that area to help spark some offence for Cozens and build his confidence.
It’s also important to note that the Sabres aren’t exactly deep at the centre position. Cozens is playing on the second line out of necessity and if they move him, they would be left with a big hole unless they are getting a top-six centre in return. It would also put more pressure on Tage Thompson, who is trying to bounce back this season and is playing much better than he did a year ago. When Benson and Quinn develop and hit their full potential, it would be a shame if Buffalo is then searching for a competent option to play with them because they moved on from Cozens.
Given the circumstances, there would be very few Cozens trade scenarios that would make sense for the Sabres. Elliotte Friedman pondered a hypothetical trade Monday on the 32 Thoughts podcast, where Cozens and Bowen Byram would head to Vancouver for Elias Pettersson. If someone like Pettersson is coming back in return a Cozens trade becomes more palatable, though those trades are complicated and teams don’t let players like Pettersson go easily. It’s going to be really tough for Kevyn Adams to get enough back for Cozens where he won’t regret the move in a year or two.
If you want to know the potential perils of dealing Cozens, look no further than the recent disasters the Sabres have had moving off of talented players. Go to back the summer of 2018 when they dealt Ryan O’Reilly to the St. Louis Blues. It took O’Reilly all of one season to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Buffalo didn’t re-sign Linus Ullmark in the summer of 2021 and he promptly won a Vezina Trophy with the Boston Bruins. They dealt Sam Reinhart to the Florida Panthers that same summer and he quickly became one of the league’s best goal scorers and a pivotal piece on a Stanley Cup championship team. Later that year came the Jack Eichel trade and he’s already helped Vegas to a Cup and is probably in the Hart conversation this season.
Sure, you can make an argument the Sabres got some good pieces in return for those players. Thompson and Alex Tuch are great players and Devon Levi has a lot of promise, but it has to be tough to swallow for Sabres fans watching guys they let go become instrumental in the success of other franchises. Maybe Cozens isn’t as polished or talented as those others who left, but Buffalo making a hasty decision feels like a continuation of a horrible pattern.
Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs
It felt like a significant injury to one of the Leafs goaltenders was inevitable.
Joseph Woll has an injury history a mile long and has really struggled to stay in the lineup, while Anthony Stolarz’s past knee issues are hard to ignore. Woll missed some time with a minor ailment earlier in the season and now Stolarz will be out for the foreseeable future to remove something from his knee. Toronto’s top-notch goaltending has carried them so far this year and now they’ll have to press on with a lot more uncertainty between the pipes.
Woll is going to get the bulk of the playing time with Stolarz sidelined in an ideal scenario, if he can hold up that is. It’s no secret he’s had a tough time staying healthy and with Stolarz’s injury, there will be even more pressure on Woll to remain available. Even if Woll is able to carry the load, the Maple Leafs will have to rely on reinforcements. It seems very unlikely we’ll see Stolarz before February and the Leafs have 20 games between now and February 1st, including three back-to-backs. It’s unrealistic to ask Woll to play every non-back-to-back game over that time period, so expect another netminder to at least get a handful of crucial games over this stretch.
Dennis Hildeby got the first look, beating the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday and he also stepped in when Woll was hurt earlier in the year. He’s 2-1-0 with an .875 save percentage and has looked overmatched for stretches. Hildeby is probably better served spending most of his time in the AHL this year but if he can win two out of every three games the Leafs will probably be very happy with that, regardless of what his other numbers look like.
Don’t forget about Matt Murray, who could be getting a shot soon, too. Murray has his own injury history to overcome and he’s been solid in limited action this year with the Toronto Marlies as he tries to work his back to the NHL. He also has the most experience of any of the Leafs goalies and a pair of Stanley Cups to his credit.
There’s also Artur Akhtyamov. The 23-year-old has been excellent with the Marlies this year, sporting an 8-1-1 record with a .911 save percentage. Akhtyamov is a former fourth-round pick and probably not ready for NHL action just yet. He needs a lot more seasoning in the AHL, though the Leafs could use him if they suffer another injury in the crease.
It’s definitely not an ideal situation for the Leafs, but they’ve been through this before. Woll missed a huge chunk of the season a year ago with an injury and Ilya Samsonov had to be shut down for a time to recapture his game. That meant Martin Jones was forced to play 22 games for the Leafs in 2023-24 and filled in admirably, keeping Toronto afloat. This year’s version of the Maple Leafs under Craig Berube are also better equipped to survive a stretch where they need to use a third goalie. Toronto is eighth best in the NHL in high-danger chances allowed, compared to a 22nd ranking last season.
They’ve also rebuilt their defence, with Chris Tanev and Oliver-Ekman Larsson coming on board. Add in the emergence of Jake McCabe as an excellent shutdown option and the Leafs have a legitimate top four on their blue line for the first time in ages. In fact, McCabe and Tanev rank first in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes among defensive pairs that have played at least 100 minutes.
The Leafs have insulated themselves well against an injury to one of their netminders and it’s more of a necessity this season. As good as Stolarz and Woll have been, it was simply unrealistic to expect them both to waltz through this season unscathed. Toronto may not thrive with Stolarz sidelined, but they should be able to survive.
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders
The trade deadline is still nearly three months away, but general managers across the league are already no doubt targeting players who can help take their team to the next level.
Someone who may be at the top of several wish lists is Brock Nelson. The big New York Islanders centre would be a perfect fit for almost any squad hoping to make a Stanley Cup run and it’s easy to see why he’d be a hot commodity. Nelson is a perennial 30-goal scorer, solid in the faceoff circle and can play in the top six. The only question is, will he be available come March?
Nelson is currently in the final year of his contract, making $6 million at 33 years of age. That could make him the perfect rental for a number of squads needing a centre and would potentially net the Islanders a decent haul in return, if they were willing to retain some money. It’s hard to find great comparables for Nelson, but Claude Giroux is not a bad one. When Giroux was dealt a few years back at a similar age to Nelson, the Philadelphia Flyers received a first and third-round pick, as well as Owen Tippett in return. A package like that could be very attractive to a rebuilding team if the Islanders choose to go down that road.
As it stands now, the Isles are currently five points out of the final wild-card spot in the East, but they’ve lost in the first round in back-to-back years and feel like a team closer to the mushy middle than a true contender. Rebuilding isn’t really in Lou Lamoriello or Patrick Roy’s nature, so I have a hard time believing they’d throw in the towel if they are still roughly in this position come late February. New York would have to really go downhill over the next couple months to push Lamoriello into selling mode.
There’s also the complication of Nelson’s expiring contract. If he’s a rental the price would be less than if he agrees to an extension with a new team and if I’m Nelson, testing free agency is the best course of action. At 33, this should be Nelson’s last significant contract and he’d likely get more on the open market than from a contending team that’s probably tight up against the cap trying to acquire him at the deadline.
Nelson also has a 16-team no-trade clause, so he’ll have a big say in the process should it get to that point. If the Isles really do fall out of the race and Nelson and the team are far apart on terms, it may make the most sense for both parties to move on. Nelson could get a chance at a Cup somewhere and then sign with the team of his choice next summer, while the Isles could get some assets back in return.
Of course, this could all be irrelevant if Nelson and the Isles agree on an extension prior to the deadline. He could easily choose to remain with the team that drafted him and try to finish his career as an Islander. That would be hugely disappointing to those squads hoping to make a deep playoff run, though, as Nelson could be the biggest prize at the deadline.
He may even end up being the missing piece to the puzzle for a team that ultimately winds up winning the Stanley Cup.
Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings
Anze Kopitar is aging like a fine wine.
The 37-year-old is in the midst of a late career-offensive renaissance, notching 37 points in his first 32 games of the season. That puts him on pace for 95, which would be a new career best. It’s very unusual to see someone of Kopitar’s age have a breakout campaign and in this case, it’s even more unique for a couple of reasons.
If you quickly glance at Kopitar’s numbers this year, you might think some of his offensive surge has to do with a high shooting percentage. The Kings forward is shooting over 22 per cent right now and that’s well above his career average, but a closer look reveals it’s not too far off what he’s been shooting over the past few seasons. In 2022-23, Kopitar shot 16.6 per cent on 169 shots and last season it was 19.5 per cent on 133. Kopitar is being a lot more selective with his shooting, though it’s not necessarily leading to more goals overall. He’s on pace for 25 goals in 2024-25 on only about 100 shots, which equates to finding the back of the net on every four shots. That’s incredible efficiency.
Instead, Kopitar is looking for his teammates more often. He’s clicking at a little less than an assist per game at the moment and trending for 70 on the year, easily a career-high.
Kopitar is also playing with some extra motivation this season, too. All the talk in the summer was that Quinton Byfield was the number one centre in waiting for the Kings and eventually, he was going to supplant Kopitar. Byfield was pegged by many for a breakout season, but instead, he’s struggling with an adjustment to the middle of the ice and Kopitar has taken his game to another level. It could be some time before we see Byfield take on the top centre role for the Kings.
Kopitar isn’t ready to pass the torch just yet.
