BURSTThe collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria throws a major wrench into the counter-ISIS mission for the roughly 900 U.S. troops in the country, while also complicating Washington's allies in the region.
The U.S. carried out a massive preemptive strike against ISIS over the weekend as Syria’s capital of Damascus fell to a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Assad fled to Moscow.
While Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, are expected to suffer the most from the collapse, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies will now have to work with a coalition of rebels largely backed by Turkey, which considers Kurdish fighters terrorists.
The emerging new coalition in Damascus could also have big implications for relations among other U.S. allies in the region, including Iraq, Israel and Jordan.
Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, said he was concerned about whether HTS would actually seek to restore peace in Syria and maintain independence from Ankara.
“What we're going to see is [a] decision point in the next couple days, whether HTS is going to be a Syrian nationalist and govern for all Syria, or whether they're basically going to be mercenaries for Turkey,” he said. “And that itself is very worrying.”
HTS, formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, is an offshoot of al Qaeda, but has tried to rebrand itself in the past few years while governing the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has made overtures to the international community, promising to protect minority rights and bring Syria into a state of governance.
“People who fear Islamic governance either have seen incorrect implementations of it or do not understand it properly,” he told CNN last week. “We are talking about a larger project — we are talking about building Syria. ... Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.”
His comments are being met with cautious optimism in Washington.
President Biden signaled in a Sunday speech it was a “historic opportunity” for Syria after the fall of the Assad regime after 50 years, calling the development a “fundamental act of justice.”
But Biden also cautioned that it was “a moment of risk and uncertainty,” as he vowed to continue the mission against ISIS in Syria and support regional allies.
“As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks,” Biden said.
Communication will be difficult, given the U.S. has designated HTS a terrorist organization, and the Pentagon said Monday that it has no direct channels with the group whose leader, Golani, has a $10 million bounty on his head.
Biden and top U.S. officials have passed messages to HTS through Turkey but are reportedly considering whether to establish direct communication, according to The New York Times.
Turkey has also designated HTS a terrorist group but has broadly funded the opposition coalition led by Golani. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has largely kept a public distance from the developments in Syria, but Ankara acknowledged reaching out to Assad as forces closed in on Damascus.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Turkish counterpart, Yaşar Güler, on Sunday, and both agreed to avoid creating any risk to U.S. forces or the counter-ISIS mission in Syria.
Turkey has long decried the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control territory in northeastern Syria along with U.S. forces to counter ISIS. Turkey and the U.S. are NATO allies but have long butted heads over Washington’s support for the SDF. The Kurdish people have no nation and are a minority in Turkey, and some of them have joined U.S.-designated terrorist groups like the Kurdistan Workers' Party fighting for an autonomous state.
Now Turkey’s expanded role in Syria is sparking fears that Ankara will further pressure the U.S. and the SDF, which clashed with Turkish forces this week, according to a Syrian rights group.
Steven Simon, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the new Syria was going to be a “difficult problem” for the U.S. and Turkey.
“The Turks accurately see the U.S. presence as a tripwire deterrent against any Turkish attempt to subdue the SDF,” he said, also predicting a fight in Washington on the issue. “Until now the U.S. bureaucracy has been divided by those who think the U.S. should stick with the Kurds in the 'defeat ISIS' mission and those who think it’s the alliance, stupid, and NATO responsibilities have to take precedence.”
Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Monday that while there is a degree of uncertainty as to what comes next, she was confident the U.S. can continue its counter-ISIS mission.
A senior U.S. official said Sunday that the U.S. has a “demonstrated record of protecting positions” in northeast Syria with the SDF and would continue to operate in the country.
“We are engaged with everybody, and we have ways to communicate with everybody,” the official told reporters, adding there was a desire to de-escalate tensions, including between the SDF and Turkey. “Something I think we are working on, on deconflicting and de-escalating as best we can. And that effort is very much ongoing.”
Elliott Abrams, a former special representative to Iran and Venezuela under the first Trump administration, said at an event with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America on Monday that Washington should engage with Ankara to understand its goals.
“The question here that we need to think about and talk to Turkey about, is what do they want? What are their goals here?” he asked. “They’re one of the big winners. ... What do they want now?”
The U.S. mission could be further complicated by President-elect Trump, whose more isolationist views are likely to put Washington in a more hands-off stance regarding Syria when he takes office at the end of January.
Trump, who tried to pull American troops out of Syria in his first term, said in a post on the social platform X over the weekend that it was “not our fight” and the U.S. should “have nothing to do” with the events in the country.
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” he wrote. “DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Joze Pelayo, associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said Trump should seize the opportunity in Syria to work with the incoming government and encourage free elections.
“The transition in Syria presents an opportunity for the United States to regain influence in Damascus and encourage any emerging Syrian authority to contribute to regional stability, coexistence, and peace,” he wrote. “A future Syrian administration is likely to welcome U.S. support and may even become a friend of the United States, given the widespread animosity toward Iran and Russia due to their support for the Assad regime.”
If the U.S. withdraws from Syria, it will also come at a time when roughly 2,500 American troops in Iraq for a counter-ISIS mission are expected to begin downsizing over the next two years, which could significantly diminish the U.S.'s role in the Middle East if paired with a Syrian retreat.
Simon, of the Quincy Institute, said Trump will likely try to withdraw from Syria, but noted there is a “sizeable constituency within government and Congress to keep those troops there.”
"If you leave, if you pull those guys out and there is a terrorist attack against Americans ... you're going to be blamed," said Abrams, the former Trump official. "It's not worth it. Just keep them there."
HTS and rebel forces began sweeping from northwest Syria down to Damascus a little more than a week ago, making the stunning offensive at a time when Russia was distracted in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies were focused on conflict with Israel. One of Assad’s chief allies, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, has been decimated by Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
The instability in Syria is likely to complicate the role of U.S. allies in the region, with some experts warning of instability in neighboring Jordan, which has seen domestic unrest under the current government, or Iran exerting more influence over Iraq, where it backs powerful militias, now that Tehran has lost its influence in Syria.
Biden on Monday called Jordanian King Abdullah II and “emphasized the support of the United States for the stability of Jordan,” according to a White House readout.
Iraq has reportedly fortified its border with Syria in recent days and has been in talks with HTS.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at an event over the weekend that the U.S. was focused on defeating ISIS, supporting allies and preventing a humanitarian crisis in Syria.
“The United States is not going to ... dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war,” he said. “What we are going to do is focus on the American national security priorities and interests.”
The biggest player may be Israel, which has long viewed Syria with a critical eye because of Assad’s close ties to its nemesis Iran, the primary sponsor of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which is fighting against Israeli troops in Gaza.
Israeli forces moved into a demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria over the weekend, expanding from the Golan Heights, which Israel took from Damascus in 1967. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was a temporary measure during a fragile transition period in Syria.
“They don't have the luxury of living 8,000 miles away in Washington. They're not going to believe the promises,” said Rubin of the Middle East Forum, referring to Israel. “So if that means a buffer zone for a short period of time until the Syrian government consolidates control, then they can make their judgment.”