BURSTDetroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s decision to run as an independent candidate in the Michigan gubernatorial race may throw a wrench in Democrats’ plans to hold on to the office in 2026.
Duggan, who has been a Democrat throughout his career, became the first major candidate to enter the race last week and took most observers by surprise by spurning both parties and running as an independent.
The decision could allow Duggan to stand out in the race, making life tougher for Republicans and Democrats.
“That’s given him a lot of attention, and his message surrounding that is precisely ... that he wants to break the partisan polarization, and so absolutely that’s a chance for him at this point in time to get his name out there, to define himself,” said Jonathan Hanson, a political scientist at the University of Michigan.
The Michigan governor’s race was already expected to seize headlines. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), who easily won reelection in 2022, is term-limited and cannot run again.
Michigan went red in last month's presidential race, narrowly voting for President-elect Trump even as voters also elected Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin to the U.S. Senate.
As a result, the race to succeed Whitmer is seen as an opportunity for both parties.
Duggan became the first white mayor of majority-Black Detroit since the 1970s with his election in 2013, following a successful write-in campaign. He came into office after the city declared bankruptcy and as it struggled with high unemployment and crime.
The city has turned around significantly during his tenure. City budgets were balanced, violent crime dropped and the population grew for the first time in decades.
Duggan stirred speculation he might enter the governor’s race as he came to the end of his third term and announced last month he wouldn’t seek reelection.
But his independent run was a surprise. He indicated in his announcement video that he plans to tout his mayoral record to appeal to voters across the political spectrum, saying the state needs a “whole new approach.”
“I’m not running to be the Democrats’ governor or the Republicans’ governor,” he said. “I’m running to be your governor.”
Some analysts said Duggan’s record could help him win support from voters in both parties.
Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond said Duggan has “sky-high positive name ID in the most important media market in the state,” where more than 40 percent of Michigan’s population lives.
Democrats have struggled with working-class voters who previously made up the party’s base, and voters could find his record of getting new housing built and lowering crime with a more “muscular” law enforcement approach appealing, Hemond said.
“So there's a whole litany of issues like this, where he has a track record of success and things he wants to brag about, which are very on point for where the median voter is,” he said.
Republican strategist John Sellek said Duggan’s choice suggests he didn’t feel he could win in a Democratic primary as a nonprogressive, but he has a reputation as someone who “gets things done.”
“He's going to run clearly, kind of like he governed rhetorically, almost like a technocrat,” Sellek said. “He's the person that doesn't really care about labels. He's going to be the person that got things done.”
Clear obstacles remain for Duggan to have a path to victory.
Michigan has never elected an independent governor, and the state’s straight-ticket voting option allows voters to vote for every candidate from one party without straying. Duggan will also need enough signatures to make the ballot and fundraise without the help of a party apparatus, though he has relationships with major donors.
Democrats who plan to support the party’s eventual nominee emphasized the strength of its bench, which includes Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who lives in the state; and state Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow.
“The potential gubernatorial Democratic primary field is incredibly strong and we look forward to ensuring Democrats hold onto the governorship and continue building a brighter future for all Michiganders,” state Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes said.
The Hill has reached out to Duggan’s campaign and the state GOP for comment.
Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist who has worked across Michigan, said he doesn’t expect Duggan’s ploy to work, as he is trying to distance himself from both parties despite being a lifelong Democrat.
He noted Duggan has previously allied himself with President Biden and campaigned alongside Vice President Harris during her presidential run. The Detroit mayor is officially a nonpartisan office, but Duggan hasn’t tried to stray from his party previously.
“This is not a guy that has been railing against the Democratic Party,” Feldman said. “This is someone who worked hand in glove with President Biden, with Gov. Whitmer to get resources into Detroit. And now, because he thinks it's [politically] opportunistic, he's jumping ship. I think people are going to see through that.”
But even if Duggan’s candidacy is not as successful as he hopes, he could still play a major role in the outcome — especially if he pulls in more votes that end up separating the two major-party nominees.
“Does he want his legacy to be putting a Republican in office that will turn back the progress of the last eight years in Michigan?” Feldman said. “That's the question for Mike Duggan, because the reality is that is very much on the table if Mike Duggan is on the general election ticket in 2026 as the independent candidate.”