BURSTDALLAS — What stands out first about Juan Soto‘s deal with the New York Mets is the sheer scale of the reported contract: $765 million over 15 years with no deferrals.
It’s a coup for agent Scott Boras and a franchise turning point for the Mets, but as word spread through the lobby of the Hilton Anatole on the eve of the 2024 Winter Meetings, the conversation extended beyond the winner to the four runners-up, a group including the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Blue Jays.
All four teams wanted Soto, the 26-year-old slugger whose left-handed power is surpassed only by the focus and discipline he brings to each at-bat. Those runners-up must now adjust course, a familiar challenge for a Blue Jays front office that’s had a high-stakes free agent pursuit end unsuccessfully for the second year in a row. Already, there are questions about what’s next.
First, there are the optics of pursuing an elite player and coming up short, just as they did last winter when they pushed hard for Shohei Ohtani only to learn he preferred the Dodgers.
One year later, they seriously pursued the best free agent available only to be told ‘thanks, but no thanks’ once again. The Blue Jays are believed to have made multiple aggressive offers to Soto, and that willingness to spend is absolutely preferable to some alternatives — like ignoring a player of this calibre the way the Cubs and Giants did.
As ideas go, pursuing Soto was a good one. But there are no silver or bronze medals in free agency — you either get the player or you don’t. Good ideas and best efforts don’t actually change anything on the field, and for all of their work, the Blue Jays simply haven’t landed these generational targets.
As the Winter Meetings begin, Toronto is the weakest team in the American League East and a long way from contending. Even with Soto, this roster was going to need lots of pitching. Without him, the needs remain glaring: at least one bat, a starting pitcher and bullpen help.
Internally, the Blue Jays never described themselves as favourites for Soto, but they took their shot anyway. With Soto soon to become a Met, disappointment is understandable for all involved.
“I just don’t know what the alternative is other than to do our best to make this team better,” GM Ross Atkins said last week. “We understand certain pursuits may create a level of excitement, and then that may intensify the level of disappointment, but I don’t know a better way to pursue it than to do the best possible job to improve our team.”
Of course, losing out on Soto doesn’t doom the Blue Jays to a bad off-season, but they must now pivot more skillfully than they did a year ago when Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier, Yariel Rodriguez and Justin Turner comprised their post-Ohtani fallback plan on the way to an 88-loss season.
A similar spread-it-around approach is again possible for the Blue Jays, but this time their success rate must improve. They’re aware of the need to pivot more gracefully, which is why they were expressing interest in everyone from Max Fried and Corbin Burnes to Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman even as they were chasing Soto.
For the last 48 hours, the entire industry has been on hold in anticipation of Soto’s decision. Team execs with zero chance at Soto were refreshing social media like everyone else. For the Blue Jays, who did take a real shot, the last couple days have been full of suspense.
With the sweepstakes now over, it’s time to return to those other pursuits, including players like Burnes and Bregman, who are represented by Boras. Those two are seemingly less likely to sign with the Mets now, but perhaps more likely to sign with the Yankees, a far weaker team without Soto.
The Red Sox are also likely to be aggressive on the pitching market after losing out on Soto, meaning Boston, New York and Toronto will all be competing for Burnes and Fried. Meanwhile, Soto’s decision leaves open the possibility of a Teoscar Hernandez-Dodgers reunion, even after Los Angeles signed Michael Conforto for one year.
Under those circumstances, there are no guarantees the Blue Jays will land a big name from the top of the market, which is why they’ve also been active in discussing trades and more modest free agent targets. As ever, they’re thorough. Where that leads, we’ll soon see.
One way or another, they need results ahead of the final year that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are under team control. (Speaking of which, if Soto’s worth $765 million, could Guerrero Jr. command $500 million in free agency with a big platform year? We’re a long way from that point, but Guerrero Jr.’s bargaining position keeps getting stronger).
With all that in mind, the pressure on Atkins built once the Soto news broke. The one-player-solves-all off-season isn’t possible anymore, so more creativity will be required. For the Blue Jays to get back to the playoffs, they’ll need Atkins to do better than last winter and improve the depth and upside of this roster with a series of savvy moves.
