BURSTOn the menu: Epstein scandal not going quietly; Cornyn gets a boost; Hogg-tied; Ernst headed for the exits?; "TacticalGramma"
There’s something familiar about the way a lot of Democrats are talking these days about their party’s nominee for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
A standard line from Democrats skeptical of socialistic policies and anxious about anti-Israel energy is to say something about how mainstream candidates can learn a lot from his style: social media-savvy, high-energy, and focused on kitchen-table issues. They say it was “a brilliant campaign” and duck the substance.
The echo you’re hearing there hearkens back a decade to what Republicans were saying about Donald Trump’s early successes. It was the same shtick: Mainstream candidates, it was said, could learn a lot from Trump’s grasp of Twitter, blunt talk, media savviness, use of humor and pugnacity.
Imitation soon followed, and to predictably disastrous results. Like, really disastrous. Really, really disastrous.
Certainly for a general election, style tends to matter more than substance. Lower-propensity voters without strong attachments to either major party are bound to be less concerned about the fine points of policy than the super-high-frequency voters who populate a primary electorate.
Vibes matter with those voters, but big ideological questions tend to be front and center. If Trump had been a celebrity squish with an appetite for comprehensive immigration reform, it wouldn't have mattered if he was famous or funny or good at Twitter. So it goes with Mamdani and the adventures in economic planning and the thrill of denouncing Zionism.
When it comes to the lesson for the blue team, the The New York Times's Nate Cohn said it best: The Democratic Party has shifted dramatically to the left in the past decade. “Today, liberal Democrats outnumber moderate and conservative ones by 12 percentage points, according to Gallup, 55 percent to 43 percent. In 2016 and 2020, liberals were essentially even with moderate and conservative Democrats.”
That's not to say that Mamdani didn’t run a terrific campaign. In fact, he still is.
Faced with a challenge from the right by independents Andrew Cuomo and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, Mamdani isn’t playing it safe. Safe would be to count on those two to divide the anti-socialist vote and smash through to victory by keeping his progressive base fired up and freaked out. That would certainly be the Trump-y move.
Instead, Mamdani is trying to grow his coalition by visiting with business leaders and calling on tDemocratic members of Congress. Sure, Mamdani didn't win many converts from the Upper West Side, and, sure, many of the big-name Washington pols who met with him were already on his side. But the big part is showing up, and doing it with a smile.
You could say that Adams is reaching out to his right, too. Only he’s skipping the center and going for the fringe, as he rakes in big bucks from Trump-aligned donors and spends his media moments on Fox News. Good for keeping busy and maybe even for beating Republican Curtis Sliwa in Staten Island, but not exactly a mainstream choice. And with Sliwa bangers like “slapping fannies and killing grannies,” maybe not even Staten Island.
But if Adams has plenty of money rolling in and gets to keep busy doing media, that's a serious problem for Cuomo, who is trying very hard to get into a one-on-one race with Mamdani, going so far as to say he would drop out if he’s trailing Adams in the homestretch, and wants Adams to do the same.
Mamdani is no dummy and knows that it would be a mistake to underestimate the threat Cuomo poses. The general electorate looks very little like the primary, and Mamdani’s critics will now have months to hammer his weaknesses, not just on the substance of socialism and anti-Zionism but also on the style.
What can delight the true believers may come off as slick or phony when presented to a broader audience. Certainly, Cuomo is in no danger of coming off as too slick, and can summon what seems to be a kind of enthusiasm when talking about things like mass transit and sewer improvements.
Given the crowded field, is that enough to deny Mamdani a win? Probably not, but it won't be a cakewalk, even if Adams just hangs around to audition for a cable news contributorship.
The lesson for Democrats in all this is the same one that Republicans failed to grasp about Trump in 2016. Mamdani’s success is certainly about his prodigious gifts as a politician, but those aren't easily replicated.
What is replicable is a platform, and with the right one, a radical minority movement within a larger party can stage a hostile takeover. It happened to Republicans around immigration, and one of these days, it may happen to Democrats around socialism.
Establishment Democrats managed to keep an avowed socialist from winning their party’s nomination in 2020 and 2024 and even managed the controlled demolition of an incumbent president’s reelection campaign in favor of another normie. And the old guard’s ability to deliver solid, electable moderates for races this year in New Jersey and Virginia similarly speaks well of the health of the normies.
The spectacular failure of aspiring enfant terrible David Hogg this week in the first test of his youth movement in an Arizona House primary would seem to point in the same direction, but look closer. The Hogg-backed candidate, Deja Foxx, a “25-year-old political content creator” isn’t substantially more radical than the winner, Adelita Grijalva. Indeed, what Hogg mostly seems to be focused on is youth for youth’s sake and social media virality. He’s trying to do the same thing that old-head Democrats are talking about learning from Mamdani.
That, again, misses the point. Mamdani has many specific attributes and won in a very unusual kind of primary where an incumbent mayor had left the party and the front-runner was dragging heavy baggage. Those are not things that can be replicated in other Democratic primaries, but his socialism can be.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 41.8%
Average Disapproval: 54.2%
Net Score: -12.4
Change from one week ago: -1.2 points
Change from one month ago: -0.8 points
[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 41% approve - 54% disapprove; AP-NORC 40% approve 58% disapprove; Echelon Insights 45% approve - 53% disapprove; Quinnipiac 40% approve - 54% disapprove; Marist 43% approve -52% disapprove]
Confidence in higher ed rebounds
How much confidence do you, yourself, have in higher education:
Now vs one year ago
Great deal/Quite a lot: 42% to 36%
Some: 33% to 32%
Very little/None: 23% to 32%
[Gallup survey of 1,402 U.S. adults, June 2-26]
ON THE SIDE: IT’S ALWAYS IN THE LAST PLACE YOU LOOK
Earth: “A dusty envelope misplaced in a government archive has rewritten a chapter of mineral history. That 1949 letter, discovered during a 2023 digitization project in Bavaria, pointed curators toward a shoebox of lemon‑yellow fragments that had sat unnoticed for decades. Roland Eichhorn of the Bavarian State Office for the Environment (LfU) led the modern hunt that followed, and his team soon realized they were staring at humboldtine, one of the scarcest minerals on the planet. Archivists scanning shelves in Hof found the coal‑mine owner’s note and the tantalizing phrase: 'Humboldtine from the Mathias mine near Schwandorf.' Their curiosity sent Eichhorn’s crew rifling through more than 130,000 catalogued specimens stored beneath the LfU headquarters. In a small box, the team found hazelnut‑sized yellow fragments and a handwritten label that matched the location mentioned in the letter.”
PRIME CUTS
Dems pounce as Trump fails to quell MAGA revolt on Epstein: Associated Press: “Democrats are latching on to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, demanding records be released and trolling Republicans on social media, news shows and in the U.S. House as they revel in a rare fissure between President Donald Trump and his fiercely loyal base. … The controversy puts many elected Republicans in an uncomfortable position, caught between a president who demands loyalty and a sizable segment of their base convinced the files will expose a vast conspiracy covered up by elites. House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday became the highest-ranking Republican to break with Trump on Epstein, telling conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that 'we should put everything out there and let the people decide.'”
Poll shows Republicans almost evenly split on Trump’s handling of scandal: USA Today: “Voters aren't happy with how President Donald Trump's team is dealing with the controversial Jeffrey Epstein case as the MAGA family feud over the deceased financier's sordid past continues to divide Republicans. A new Quinnipiac University survey released on July 16 shows almost two-thirds of voters disapprove of the administration's handling of the case a week after the Justice Department and the FBI released no new files and concluded that the convicted sex offender died by suicide in his jail cell. Just 17% of registered voters gave the Trump administration a thumbs up when asked about the Epstein fallout versus 63% who gave them a thumbs down. … The Quinnipiac poll shows an almost even split among GOP voters, however, with 40% approving compared to 36% disapproving, with another 24% saying they don't have an opinion. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly have expressed displeasure, with 83% and 71% disapproving, respectively.”
Cornyn cash haul helps calm GOP jitters: The Hill: Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) reelection campaign announced Monday that he raised more than $3.9 million in the second quarter of the year, surpassing the sum raised by his top primary rival. … Cornyn’s announced fundraising haul comes days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, his challenger in the Republican primary, announced his campaign raised $2.9 million during the same period. … The incumbent is facing arguably the toughest fight of his political career, as most polls show Paxton leading him in the primary, which is slated for early March. … A source told The Hill last week that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who is supporting Cornyn, met with President Trump on Wednesday evening to discuss upcoming Senate races, including the Lone Star State’s. It’s unclear whether Trump, who is an ally of both Cornyn and Paxton, will endorse in the race.”
Judge shields Paxton divorce records from the public: KUT: “The judge currently handling Attorney General Ken Paxton’s divorce case has decided to shield the records in the case from public disclosure. Judge Ray Wheless, a Republican serving as the regional administrative judge for North Texas, ordered the case records be sealed Friday. He was brought on to the case after the judge originally assigned to the case, Jill Renfro Willis, recused herself. While Willis did not give a reason for her recusal, she and her husband, Collin County District Attorney Greg Willis, have longtime ties to the Paxtons. Sealing the court records means the public will not have access to further filings in the case, which has garnered significant public interest given the Paxtons’ political prominence and past links between the attorney general’s infidelity and allegations of corruption.”
Hogg thwarted as Adelita Grijalva protects late father’s seat: Forbes: “Deja Foxx, a popular social media influencer, lost Tuesday night’s Democratic primary for the congressional seat vacated by the death of Rep. Raul Grijalva in March to the late congressman’s daughter Adelita Grijalva, who was backed by top Democrats and progressive lawmakers like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen Bernie Sanders. … Arizona’s 7th district is heavily Democratic leaning, according to the Cook Political Report, meaning whoever wins Tuesday’s primary will be a heavy favorite in the Sept. 23 general election. Republicans only hold a slim majority in the House and are keen to pick up any available seats. … Foxx was also one of the candidates endorsed by Leaders We Deserve, the political organization founded by former Democratic National Committee vice chair David Hogg with the intention of winning primary elections against sitting Democrats 'unwilling or unable to meet the moment' and 'asleep at the wheel.'"
Obama tells Dems to stop whining: CNN: “Former President Barack Obama issued a call to action for Democrats at a private fundraiser in New Jersey on Friday evening, urging those frustrated by the state of the country under President Donald Trump to 'stand up for the things that you think are right.' ... 'I think it’s going to require a little bit less navel-gazing and a little less whining and being in fetal positions. And it’s going to require Democrats to just toughen up.' … As Democrats debate who should lead the party, Obama encouraged them to channel their energy into the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, saying the off-year elections could be ‘a big jumpstart for where we need to go.’”
SHORT ORDER
Puny fundraising spurs speculation about possible Ernst retirement — KCRG
Perennial candidate Stacey Abrams puts Georgia Dems on notice: She may run again — NPR
Rep. Zach Nunn (R) drops potential Iowa governor bid after Trump steers him back to House — KCCI
D.C. voters reward Councilman Trayon White with return to office after expulsion for corruption — WTOP
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) blames “processing error” for $85,000 in unpaid rent — The Hill
Poll shows Spanberger still holds dominating Virginia gubernatorial lead — The Hill
Former Rep. Mary Peltola keeps Alaska Dems in suspense — Northern Journal
TABLE TALK: EXIT SANDMAN
“Absolutely not authorized.” — A spokesperson for the band Metallica when asked about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of the band’s hit "Enter Sandman” for a video of himself with aerial drones. The Pentagon removed the music at the band’s request.
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FOR DESSERT: THE GOLDEN AGE OF GAMING
The Guardian: “The military shooter game has a predominantly young male user base, but Statham’s Twitch handle is TacticalGramma — a nod to the 60-year-old’s two grandkids. Her lifelong gaming hobby has become an income stream. ... 'A lot of people are surprised that someone my age is playing video games,' [Michelle] Statham admits. She finds the gameplay exhilarating. 'When I get really good long sniper shots in, or down someone out of a helicopter, that’s pretty fun,' she says. Statham is one of the 57 million Americans over 50 who game, a cohort that represents 28% of roughly 205 million total US gamers. ... According to the ESA, nearly half of Americans in their 60s and 70s play some form of PC, mobile or console video game every week, as do 36% of people in their 80s.”
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report.