BURSTThe nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating of the 2026 Texas Senate race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” this week as the contentious GOP primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton rages on.
The ratings change comes as polls consistently show Paxton leading Cornyn in the Republican primary. However, in hypothetical general election polling, Paxton appears more vulnerable against Democrats than Cornyn does as a hypothetical nominee.
The dynamic has made Democrats more hopeful about their chances in the Lone Star State, which has not seen a Democrat win statewide since 1994. Last month, the Texas Majority PAC and the Texas Democratic Party launched an eight-figure campaign dubbed “Blue Texas” on Monday aimed at electing Democrats up and down the ballot.
Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost his challenge against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year, has jumped into the Democratic primary along with retired NASA astronaut and Air Force pilot Terry Virts.
President Trump has held off on endorsing in the intraparty contest. Paxton and Cornyn are both considered allies of the president. Cornyn told NBC News earlier this week that Trump has told him he is not ready to endorse in the race.
“I’ve talked to him about it a number of times. He is not ready to make that endorsement,” the senator told the network. “I think as we start advertising and closing the gap in the polls, hopefully he’ll see fit to make that endorsement, but we can’t wait,” he continued. “I pointed out to him, and he knows this, that if he endorsed me, the race would be over.”